TWO EXTREMES ADD UP TO BILLIONS IN MITIGATION COSTS
B.C. needs at least $13 billion in work to limit the dangers of flooding and wildfire
When Ben Campbell evacuated Monte Lake with wife Kami as wildfire threatened the B.C. Interior community last summer, the whole sky was blotted out by smoke with an orange glow.
It was apocalyptic, says Campbell.
Hot as hell.
A day later, he learned everything on his property had gone up in flames: An old home where they were storing their belongings, a truck, two Harley Davidson motorcycles and a camper trailer.
The fire had jumped Highway 97 and tore through the timber and dozens of homes.
“A part of me still can't help thinking, why did this happen to us?”
The total loss of their property in early August was emblematic of a deadly year of fire and flood in B.C. that destroyed homes, roads, farms, bridges and people's lives. Evacuations from fires and floods hit 46,000 people.
The devastation, driven in part by climate change, say experts, is expected to worsen with drier, hotter summers, more frequent floods and rising oceans.
The province has made some efforts to prepare for the expected increased frequency of floods and wildfires, producing numerous reports that date back nearly two decades, working recently on a “new” flood strategy and promising change and more funding following the latest catastrophic events.
But government efforts have fallen dangerously short of what is needed to properly protect communities.
Of 75 B.C. communities examined by Postmedia, more than two-thirds do not have a detailed, costed flood plan, or have only parts of a plan or have just started work
to create a plan.
Communities without comprehensive, costed flood mitigation plans or with only partial plans include those in populous regions in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley: Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, the Township of Langley, Mission, the District of Kent (which includes Agassiz) and White Rock. These communities have a total population of over 440,000.
And Postmedia found that in nearly two decades, less than 10 per cent of needed
work identified by the province has been completed to reduce wildfire risk in forests around communities.
“I'm afraid B.C. is in for one hell of a ride in the years and decades to come,” says Younes Alila, a University of B.C. forestry professor who studies the links between wildfire in watersheds and increased flooding. “We are at a crossroads.”
Postmedia's four-month examination drew from responses to questions put to more than 85 municipalities, First Nations and regional districts;
thousands of pages of government-commissioned, academic and other independent reports, and community wildfire and flood protection plans and other municipal records; and dozens of interviews with community representatives, experts and those carrying out work to protect communities from floods and wildfires.
Many communities face both wildfire and flood risks.
The communities examined are home to 3.7 million British Columbians.
Underpinning the findings
is the fact local governments, which the province had made responsible for much of the risk reduction work, face huge costs they cannot pay.
The total cost to communities examined by Postmedia that have flood protection plans, or partial plans, is more than $7.7 billion. But the price tag is certainly much higher because only one third of communities have a costed plan, and some plans are not fully costed or need to be updated. New Westminster, for example, has an outdated 2011 plan with a price tag of $39 million.
I'm afraid B.C. is in for one hell of a ride in the years and decades to come.” UBC professor Younes Alila
The cost of flood protection plans for Delta, Chilliwack and Pitt Meadows alone totals $2.2 billion.
Virtually all communities with costed flood plans say they can't pay for the work at all or need significant help from higher levels of government.
Abbotsford, which was overwhelmed by flooding in November 2021, just released a new mitigation plan with an estimated cost of up to $2.8 billion to upgrade dikes, pumping stations and add other flood protection.
That's a massive jump from an estimate of $446 million in 2018 to upgrade its 33 kilometres of dikes.
Abbotsford Mayor Henry Braun is blunt. His city of 150,000 does not have that kind of money.
Braun says the community can't possibly pay for the costly flood protection plan by itself given its property tax base.
“We would do nothing else. No police. No fire. No community services. No roads. No sewer. No water. Well, that's just ridiculous,” says Braun.
The District of Kent has a similar problem. It has just costed some short-term dike upgrades and riverbank protection at $6.5 million, a figure that could change “significantly.”
Longer term plans that account for climate change, including to its 19 kilometres of dikes, have not been costed.
“Without funding from the federal and/or provincial governments the District of Kent will be unable to proceed with the work required,” says Mike Van Laerhoven, the deputy fire chief and emergency coordinator.
Vancouver faces a $1 billion price for flood protection works needed by 2100 to mitigate sea-level rise.
The city says it is exploring a long-term funding strategy but stresses funding from higher levels of government is “crucial.”
Postmedia found only one local government in B.C. has a significant, dedicated stream of income to finance flood protection upgrades: Richmond.
By the end of the decade, the community, which has 49 kilometres of dikes, expects to raise $30 million a year with a flood protection utility fee.
SLOW PACE ON WILDFIRE PROTECTION
Many communities have wildfire protection plans needed to secure funding from the province to undertake work in forested land to reduce wildfire risk — but Postmedia found progress has been extremely slow.
In nearly two decades, less than 10 per cent of needed fuel clearing on more than 11,000 square kilometres has been completed.
The figure was compiled from independent reports and information provided by the province at the request of Postmedia.
The cost to clean up all that land could be as much as $6 billion.
None of the local governments surveyed has a dedicated income stream to fund wildfire risk reduction, Postmedia found.
For almost all communities, work would not proceed at all without government grants.
“Our schools, grocery stores, rec centre, hospital, dentist, medical clinic, homeless shelter ... are critical to the region's residents, but 1,500 property owners in Lillooet can't possibly fund all the efforts required to protect the town from the threats of wildfire in our surrounding forests,” says Jeremy Denegar, Lillooet's chief administrative officer.
Lillooet is just an hour by road from Lytton, where two people died last summer when the village was destroyed by fire.
Postmedia found that of 53 communities where information on wildfire protection was available, six did not have a protection plan or suggested another agency, such as a regional district or the province, had responsibility. Another 10 communities had wildfire protection plans that
were six years old or more. Experts say plans should be updated every five years.
A key step in reducing wildfire risk in communities is to thin out trees, prune lower branches and remove forest-floor debris, so fire can't climb or spread as easily. Such steps were credited with saving Logan Lake last summer from a raging wildfire.
But the work is expensive — as much as $600,000 for every square kilometre of forest.
Just more than 10 per cent
of the nearly 360 square kilometres of forest identified as needing thinning, pruning and other work has taken place in 24 communities, Postmedia learned.
As much as $190 million would be needed to treat the identified areas in those communities. That's more than has been available to all communities since a provincial grant program was created in 2004, according to an analysis of statistics provided by the B.C. Wildfire Service.
The slow pace frustrates communities.
In Cranbrook, the city of 20,000 has made progress with almost two square kilometres of thinning and prescribed burning, but more work is needed to create larger fuel breaks, say community officials.
“For far too long, we've been trying to solve this issue with a few dollars attached to a favourable media release,” says Scott Driver, Cranbrook's fire and emergency director.
BILLIONS IN SPENDING NEEDED
In B.C., we do not have a co-ordinated strategy ... ” Wildfire expert Robert Gray
Postmedia's findings underscore the colossal scope and huge cost of what is needed to harden communities to climate change.
The $7.7 billion for flood protection (an underestimate) and $6 billion for forest thinning to reduce wildfire risks pushes the total to well over $13 billion.
Communities desperately need more money.
Lori Daniels, a forestry professor at UBC with expertise in wildfire, said the province has long decided that it should mitigate the catastrophic consequences of earthquakes.
During a 15-year period up to 2015, $17 billion was spent on seismic upgrades for schools, hospitals, roads and bridges, said Daniels, citing a provincial report from the time.
“When we recognize it as a priority, we find ways to make it work . ... There has to be this urgency” for adaptation to climate change.
Right now, spending is skewed toward response.
Between 2008 and 2021, B.C. spent $4.16 billion fighting fires, according to the B.C. Wildfire Service.
During that period, the province spent just five per cent of that amount on reducing wildfire risk in and around communities, about $224 million.
And the cost of wildfire goes well beyond firefighting.
It can include loss of habitat and wildlife, damage to watersheds, destroyed carbon storage, decreased home value and harm to health and mental health.
Robert Gray, a wildfire ecologist and consultant, says the true cost of wildfires in B.C. in a bad year is $10 billion or more.
“This stuff really adds up . ... So, to spend $6 billion to get ahead (by reducing wildfire risk), that's nothing,” says Gray.
The story is no different for floods.
The B.C. and federal governments — Ottawa contributes to flood protection — have already announced more than $7 billion for response and recovery after last year's floods.
In Abbotsford, for example, Braun, the mayor, estimates response and recovery costs will total about $150 million, separate from what is needed to improve flood protection.
B.C. also announced that farmers will be able to tap into $228 million in provincial-federal aid for damages from the flooding.
These figures don't account for the cost of repairing provincial roads and bridges, forecast to be in the billions, easily pushing the response and recovery costs in 2021 to more than $10 billion from flooding alone.
That figure dwarfs estimated provincial-federal spending on flood mitigation since 2008 of $549 million, according to a calculation by Postmedia.
Glenn McGillivray, managing director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, an independent research institute affiliated with Western University in London, Ont., says a key problem is that disasters are treated like temporary blips.
“So we ride by the seat of our pants. We wing it. And we say that we never saw it coming. But that's not true. And we know that these things are going to start happening more frequently,” says McGillivray,
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF WORK
The floodwaters that swept over the Fraser Valley in November had a devastating effect on farmers, destroying crops and killing livestock.
Among properties that were hit was the Khakh family's farm in Abbotsford. The family lost a Brussels sprouts crop and the floodwaters, ranging up to almost two metres deep, also damaged housing for seasonal workers.
The third-generation farm family was still working on cleanup in mid-April. And the family is now contending with a cool spring, which is holding back planting of some crops.
All of it puts the threat of climate change in stark relief, particularly the possibility of more frequent and severe rains and floods in the future, says Gagan Khakh.
It's why it's imperative that flood protection be improved, he said.
Khakh believes the province should figure out what are the highest priority areas for flood protection — and focus funding there — including in Abbotsford.
Khakh has a short answer to when improvement should take place.
“Right away.”
But the focus now is on cleanup and recovery.
Immediately after last November's disastrous flooding, B.C. Premier John Horgan and Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth acknowledged that more work — and more money — was needed to reduce the risks of climate change. “That work has been underway and is going to continue being underway and is very much a priority,” said Farnworth.
Recently, Farnworth and federal Public Safety Minister Bill Blair reiterated that position.
But how those decisions will be made — or a timeline — has not been set.
In January, the province agreed to work with municipalities to review its financial relationship with local governments. That came after a 2021 Union of B.C. Municipalities report that called for a percentage of the provincial carbon tax to go to local governments to pay for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
There is no timeline for a decision or a guarantee of changes from that review.
After the extreme flooding in November, Metro Vancouver mayors created a task force to provide recommendations to work on a Lower Mainland flood management strategy, started in 2016, which is being facilitated by the non-profit Fraser Basin Council.
That strategy — a combined effort of provincial, federal, municipal and First Nation governments and other agencies such as YVR — is more than three years overdue.
Following a meeting in mid-April of a new committee of provincial and federal ministers created to address climate resilience, both Blair and Farnworth spoke of the need to work co-operatively with all levels of government, including with First Nations, to determine climate resilience priorities and carry them out.
“It is about looking at the priorities and ensuring that a system that allows us not only to prioritize properly,” said Farnworth.
Added Blair: “We want to make sure that we invest those limited dollars in the greatest public good.”
We wing it. And we say that we never saw it coming. But that's not true.” Researcher Glenn McGillivray
STRATEGIC SHIFT REQUIRED
Experts suggest the province needs a strategic shift in how it addresses adapting to and reducing the risks of floods and wildfires.
That includes targeting spending at areas that have higher risks to wildfire and floods, instead of funding driven by the ad hoc nature of grants, which may not be handed out by priority.
Also applying for grants every year eats up their scarce resources. It also makes communities compete with one another.
A 2021 consultant's report prepared for a Lower Mainland flood strategy concluded that “there is a failure of the current flood risk governance structure” and suggested that some centralization of activities is needed, after responsibility for flood control was downloaded onto municipalities in 2004.
Braun, the Abbotsford mayor, compared applying for grants to going to a casino in Las Vegas.
“You cannot do long-term planning on a grant application program because you don't know from year to year if you're going to get anything or one tenth of what you asked for.”
Braun and officials in other communities say it's not fair for the province to increase dike standards but then not fund the work properly.
There is also a need for more regional planning and collaboration among all players, particularly when it comes to wildfires, which need the involvement of all levels of government, First Nations, private landowners, and the forest industry, say experts and those with communities at risk.
Tyrone McNeil, chair of a First Nations emergency planning secretariat and the Sto:lo Tribal Council chief, says there should be a partnership among provincial, federal and First Nation governments, in his case a group representing 31 Coast Salish communities.
More involvement of local governments is needed in regional strategies, he says.
“It makes so much sense to get together. Why would we do this individually?” asks McNeil.
Gray, the wildfire ecologist, says what is needed is a quarterback.
“In B.C., we do not have a co-ordinated strategy that's pulling in all the various bits and pieces under one umbrella.”
ESTABLISH A NEW, STABLE REVENUE STREAM
A B.C. government-commissioned review of the 2017 flood and wildfire season concluded the province should be more aggressive in spending on risk reduction before emergencies happen.
The authors were George Abbott, a former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, and Maureen Chapman, the Skawahlook First Nation chief.
They suggested B.C. use its carbon tax to establish a new, predictable and stable revenue stream for enhanced prevention and preparedness. This fiscal year, B.C.'s carbon tax is expected to bring in $2.3 billion.
That has not happened. Their independent review also called for the province to use the Forest Enhancement Society of B.C. as the primary public entity to deliver publicly subsidized fuel thinning to reduce wildfire risk in and round communities.
You cannot do long-term planning on a grant application program.”
The society, a Crown agency, has spent about $55.5 million on wildfire risk projects since its creation in 2016, according to information it provided to Postmedia.
The agency says it has driven down costs to as low as $250,000 a square kilometre.
While the B.C. government has indicated in the recent budget it will provide more funding to the society, it has also decided to beef up funding of the B.C. Wildfire Service with an additional $58 million in 2022.
Part of that funding is intended to go toward fuel thinning, but it is not clear how that work will be carried out and provincial forestry officials could not say how much work was planned.
Another independent report, Firestorm 2003, headed by former Manitoba premier Gary Filmon, called for the province to require local government to implement building and land use measures to reduce the effect of wildfire in the high-risk zones.
The practices remain voluntary.
Abbott, the former B.C. cabinet minister, said local, provincial and federal governments have many pressures and scarce public dollars, but it's clear governments need to make risk-reduction investments to combat the effects of climate change.
Any progress will hinge on partnerships, starting with the provincial and federal governments, and depend on dedicated resources, said Abbott, who has a PhD in political science from the University of Victoria. He continues to argue for the carbon tax as a funding source.
“I think it is critical for dealing with this effectively,” said Abbott. “Now is the time.”
`MORE ON TOP OF THIS'
It seems like the consequences of doing nothing are writ large in Monte Lake.
An unincorporated community, it falls under the auspices of the Thompson-Nicola Regional District.
The district has done fuel thinning to reduce wildfire risk in and around communities but none since 2016 and none in Monte Lake, according to information provided by the district and a Postmedia analysis of municipal and provincial reporting.
When the fire ripped through the area, 62 structures were burned, according to information provided to Postmedia by Emergency Management B.C.
On a sunny day in midMarch, Ben Campbell was building a new home.
The pale wood-frame walls, roof and deck gleamed atop a concrete foundation.
There will be a beautiful view of the valley and mountain to the west, although it is scarred now by fire.
Campbell said there was a time when he had considered not returning because of the devastation.
Above his property, the thick brush between the bigger timber had burned.
Red needles now dot the ground.
He has cut down the worst burned trees — black sticks — that remained.
Roots burned deep in the soil for weeks.
Says Campbell as he surveyed the fire's aftermath: We “have to be more on top of this.”
The land immediately behind his property is Crown land, so Campbell could not have touched it to reduce the wildfire risk.
That authority lay in the hands of others.
Abbotsford Mayor Henry Braun