End of steel plant siege claimed as victory by Russia and Ukraine
DONBAS, Ukraine — Troy. Leningrad. The Alamo. The defence of Azovstal and Mariupol will be added to the list of history's most bitterly fought, painful sieges. But was it worth it?
The Ukrainian government and military are insisting that the defenders of the Azovstal steelworks succeeded in tying down Russian forces that could have been used elsewhere.
“They did not allow the enemy to transfer groups of up to 17 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) — about 20,000 personnel — to other areas,” a Ukrainian army spokesman said in a statement Monday.
Specifically, Azovstal stopped the Russians capturing Zaporizhzhya or closing their encirclement in the Donbas, they added.
An Azov regiment commander made the same claim as he announced the withdrawal.
Western officials believe Russia committed 120-125 BTGs to its initial invasion of Ukraine in February.
Although those claims are partly intended to soften the blow of defeat, they have merit.
But there are two other significant strategic implications of the end of this most extraordinary stand.
The first is moral; the defence of Mariupol became a symbol of wider Ukrainian resistance. Its final loss will be seized on by Russian propaganda as a victory.
That is why the Ukrainian military and government are refusing to call the fall of Azovstal a surrender. It is, they insist, an “evacuation.”
Plus, the deal cut with the Russians included strict conditions, including a promise from the Russians not to release footage.
The second relates to Vladimir Putin's key war aims. On April 21, Putin effectively declared the battle for Mariupol won and told Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, in a stagedfor-the-cameras meeting, to cancel the “pointless” assault on the last defenders in Azovstal.
“Seal it off so that not even a fly comes through,” he said.
A look at the map was enough to show why that was not really an option.
Russia's strategic goal on the Azov Sea coast was to open a land-corridor from the Russian mainland to Crimea. The M14 coastal highway, the only road linking the Russian city of Rostov with Crimea, runs straight through Mariupol and literally under the shadow of Azovstal's blast furnaces.
To really secure the land bridge, the steelworks had to fall. And the halt to offensive operations was broken almost as soon as it was made.
So, at immense cost and after great delay, Putin can finally say he has achieved one of his reduced war aims. The others, however, remain elusive. The victory is entirely pyrrhic.
And even as Putin claimed victory, the resistance may not be over.
Top-ranking Ukrainian commanders have not yet surrendered from the labyrinth of bunkers and tunnels below the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol, the leader of the Russian-backed separatist region of Donetsk said on Wednesday.
Russia's defence ministry said that in the past day 694 Ukrainian fighters — including members of the Azov regiment — had surrendered, including 29 wounded.