Simplification could beat Epicenter at Preakness

Epicenter is an overwhelming favourite in this year's Preakness Stakes. Steve Asmussen's brown colt has navigated his three-year-old campaign with aplomb, finishing first or second in four straight graded stakes races, including a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He even paired his past two speed figures, each calculated at 101 per Brisnet, a sign of peaking form.

Still, it's OK to not want to commit wagering dollars on a near evenmoney favourite. (Epicenter is 6-5 on the morning line.) Instead, let's consider backing Simplification, a horse that is flying under the radar.

Simplification's pedigree fell a bit short for the Kentucky Derby, but the shorter distance in the Preakness may be to his benefit. He and Epicenter have the same sire (Not This Time), and both have Candy Ride as their maternal grandsire. Not This Time is a son of Giant's Causeway, a known provider of stamina, while Candy Ride is a sire of six champions, including 2017 horse of the year Gun Runner. Simplification's pedigree is almost a mirror image of Gun Runner's, who has Candy Ride on his paternal line and Giant's Causeway on the bottom of the pedigree.

The reasons to back Epicenter also apply to Simplification.

They have displayed similar speed and a comparable pedigree, with the primary difference being some lucky (or unlucky) breaks in recent graded stakes races.

Why wager on Simplification and not Early Voting or Secret Oath? There is a chance Early Voting gets locked up in a three-way speed duel, complicating his chances of carrying that speed the whole way. He also took a giant leap forward in his previous race, improving his Brisnet speed figure by 20 points off a layoff. Like any athlete, a big effort like that off a rest period could cause soreness, limiting the potential for a peak effort this Saturday. Secret Oath earned a careerhigh Brisnet speed figure and pace figure (speed to the half-mile mark) in her recent Kentucky Oaks win. That usually foreshadows declining form in the next race. Unfortunately, the odds won't reflect these risks, so both should be passed over.

The similarities between Epicenter and Simplification are multifarious, enough to warrant a long look at the less prominent horse Saturday. That isn't to say Simplification deserves to be the favourite, but he certainly has value at a price higher than 5-1.