Smart money following Tsitsipas
Greek star's record on clay puts him in good stead for this year's French Open
WASHINGTON — Even without Roger Federer and Serena Williams, this year's French Open features plenty of star power.
On the men's side, Novak Djokovic, the No. 1 player in the world, is the favourite at Roland Garros after winning his sixth Italian Open title last Sunday. Rafael Nadal, known as the King of Clay with 13 French Open tiles on his resume, is the fifth seed. And 19-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz, who has won more ATP titles than any other player this year, is seeded sixth.
Luckily, two of those three heavyweights, Nadal and Djokovic, were drawn into the same quarter, with Alcaraz also in the same half of the draw. Why luckily? Because that clears the path for the rest of the 64-player bracket, and especially for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who could be a value play for bettors looking to make a bet on the French Open winner. The 23-year-old Greek star, who memorably battled Djokovic in the 2021 final, was +450 to win the tournament at the DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday, meaning a US$100 wager would win $450.
Tsitsipas, the No. 4 seed, came close to winning the title in 2021, losing to Djokovic in a five-set final in which he won the first two sets. And an analysis of his performance on clay this year shows that Tsitsipas has been 8.5 games better than an average player after adjusting for competition faced, the top mark in the field.
How do we find that number? By looking at how Tsitsipas has done — and how his opponents have done — on clay this year, similar to how teams can be ranked using the simple rating system. The rating is denominated in games above or below average, with zero representing an average player.
Alcaraz has been the second-best men's player on clay this year, 8.0 games better than an average player, followed by Djokovic (6.7), Andrey Rublev (6.2, the seventh seed) and Alexander Zverev (6.2, the third seed). Tsitsipas' first-round opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, who took two sets off Djokovic in the fourth round of last year's French Open, is rated 4.9 games better than an average payer on clay. That means we would expect Tsitsipas to win by three or four games in a three-set match. The French Open, of course, is contested with five-set matches, but it's clear that Tsitsipas should triumph despite the difficult opening match.
Also in Tsitsipas' quarter are Canada's Denis Shapovalov (4.5), Australia's Alex De Minaur (4.3) and Dan Evans of the United Kingdom (0.9). Tsitsipas, however, has a 14-4 collective record against those three. One other potential stumbling block could be Norway's Casper Ruud, the eighth seed, who could await Tsitsipas in the quarter-finals. Ruud beat Tsitsipas in straight sets last year in Madrid but he has been almost 3½ games worse than Tsitsipas on clay in 2022.
She throws in a drop shot, has a good touch of the ball and can play fast winners.”
Casper Ruud, on Ons Jabeur
On the women's side, meantime, Poland's Iga Swiatek appears primed for a dominating performance. The 20-year-old has won five consecutive titles — in Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and Rome — and boasts a 28-match winning streak that puts her as a -110 favourite (wager $110 to win $100) for a second French Open title.
After adjusting her performance on clay this year, she has been 14.2 games better than an average player, four games better than Russia's Anastasia Potapova or Tunisia's Ons Jabeur. Potapova was ousted by Finland's Anastasia Kulikova in the qualifying round, but Jabeur (+1200) offers some value if you are looking for someone to wager on aside from Swiatek at a short price.
Jabeur made history in Madrid, becoming the first African player to win a WTA 1000 event. That victory moved her from No. 10 to a career high No. 7 in the world rankings, and she's since inched up to No. 6. She's reached the last 16 at Roland Garros in each of the last two years and she's got a 44 per cent break percentage on clay, her highest rate among clay, grass and hard surfaces.
“She plays different from many other women,” Ruud said of Jabeur on the latest episode of Eurosport's Ruud Talk podcast. “She throws in a drop shot, has a good touch of the ball and can play fast winners.”