Syria’s civil war affected by nuclear deal with Iran
BEIRUT — The nuclear deal with Iran was widely expected to affect other Middle East issues, and that may already be happening with Syria: A series of recent diplomatic manoeuvres suggest a growing willingness to at least engage with the Iranian-backed government of Bashar Assad on ways to end the country’s civil war.
The embattled leader seems no more inclined to step aside now than he did four years ago, and any agreement still looks to be far offbut the search seems to be on for an elegant solution that might, for example, allow him a transitional role. In part, it is also driven by the new leadership team in Saudi Arabia, which emerged with the accession to the throne of King Salman in January.
Another factor is the emergence and spread of the violent and fanatical ISIL group as the most potent opposition to Assad, far more so than the relatively moderate rebels who won a measure of world support after the conflict began four years ago. Despite his government’s brutality and aerial bombardment that has levelled some oppositionheld areas, the 50-year-old former eye doctor now seems, at least to some, comparatively more palatable.
The civil war has killed at least 250,000, displaced half the population, flooded brittle neighbouring countries with refugees and has left jihadis occupying not only much of Syria but also perhaps a third of Iraq.
Among the developments of recent days:
In the wake of mediation by Assad’s Russian patrons, a quiet, icebreaking meeting took place in Riyadh in late July between Brig. Gen. Ali Mamlouk, the head of Syria’s powerful National Security Bureau, and Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince and defence minister. That represented a significant shift and an opening of channels between two countries that have become arch foes in Syria’s conflict. Saudi Arabia along with other Gulf states has been a key backer of rebels fighting to topple Assad.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid alMoallem flew Thursday to Oman after a two-day visit to Tehran, amid unconfirmed reports in pro-Assad media outlets that the Omani government was trying to broker a meeting of the foreign ministers of Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran has said it is preparing to submit a four-point peace plan proposal for Syria to the UN. According to some reports, it includes a “national unity government.” That is code for allowing Assad a face-saving period in which he shares power — and elections under international supervision. But it would also bring some prominence to the otherwise marginalized relative moderates who have failed to dislodge Assad militarily.
Although few will say so in public, there is an increasing, if grudging, acceptance that such a compromise may in the end be essential.