Canada’s political upheaval is not done yet

CAQ victory a big moment in 2018, but Ford’s will be bigger

It was a bad year for provincial incumbents in Canada in 2018.

In Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick, voters fired their premiers after single terms in office.

Year-end polls suggest the same fate could await the premiers of Alberta and P.E.I. in 2019.

In just the past six years, Quebec has disposed of three premiers. None of New Brunswick’s last three government leaders was afforded a second term.

The volatility that has turned so many premiers into disposable figures has so far not been a feature of the federal scene. Those of Justin Trudeau’s predecessors who first led their party to government with a majority were given a second term in office. Back-to-back majorities, though, have been less common.

Still, looking to a national campaign that is more than half a year away, there are more unknowns than certainties, and the political dynamics could still change for the worse for Trudeau’s Liberals.

No one, for instance, is taking for granted that Jagmeet Singh will still be leading the NDP by the time the general election comes around next fall.

Even as Singh prepares to campaign for a B.C. seat in a byelection early next year, more and more New Democrats are musing about his abdication, followed by the quick coronation of someone who can save the party’s furniture next fall.

The anybody-but-Singh movement has gathered much steam within NDP ranks this fall.

In the event that the New Democrats do find a way to climb out of their current hole, the Liberal prospects of a second majority mandate could diminish greatly.

Meanwhile, the issues that will dominate next year’s election conversation are still very much in flux.

Only a few months ago, NAFTA’s future looked like it was going to loom large in the federal campaign. But ever since a tentative tripartite agreement was struck with the U.S. and Mexico, the issue has largely dropped from the radar.

Over the fall sitting of Parliament, the Conservatives and the Liberals drew battle lines over the imminent introduction of a federal carbon tax in the provinces, such as Ontario, that have not put in place equivalent carbon-pricing measures.

The tax is to be offset by individual refunds. The Liberals believe that will blunt its potential negative impact on their electoral fortunes. In contrast with many of its European allies and the U.S., Canada has so far been spared a divisive election battle over immigration. Many expect that to end with the 2019 campaign.

A word in closing on the past year’s big provincial developments.

When historians look back on Canada’s political year, the recasting of Quebec’s political scene will likely stand out as the watershed event of 2018.

It will take some time to know whether the Coalition Avenir Quebec victory really is the epilogue in the existential Quebec debate over the province’s future that has spanned more than 40 years. One way or another though, Oct. 1 is a political moment worth bookmarking.

That being said, if one were to measure the significance of an electoral outcome on the scale of the social disruptions it heralds, one would pick the victory by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in Ontario over François Legault’s breakthrough.

In little more than six months, the current government at Queen’s Park has set back the clock on fronts ranging from the protection of the environment to the treatment of the province’s French-language minority and the governance of Canada’s largest city. Ontario’s less than rosy fiscal situation suggests that the real heavy lifting is yet to come.

Here is a year-end prediction: In four years’ time Quebec will have been less transformed by the CAQ than Ontario by Fordism.