Is a 10-year contract too risky?
Maybe not in the case of Bryce Harper
A Major League Baseball general manager once said something to me that I haven’t been able to shake: “There’s never been a bad one-year contract. I wish they were all one-year contracts.” Which brings us to Brian Dozier, which will eventually get us to where all roads lead these days: Bryce Harper.
Dozier’s one-year, $9-million contract is an exceptional deal for the Washington Nationals.
It’s outstanding if he produces the .246 average/.324 on-base percentage/.444 slugging percentage he has averaged for his career. It’s just fine if he repeats his lousy 2018, when those numbers dipped to .215/.305/.391. It can help in the short term. It can’t hurt in the long term. They have options if he struggles. They could be a juggernaut if he excels. What’s not to like?
So let’s get ahead of your next question before you ask it: Does this have any impact on whether the Nationals are in position to re-sign Harper? The easy answer: No, it does not.
Harper’s market isn’t completely understood. We know the Nationals made a 10-year, $300million offer late last season, when they were the only team who could negotiate with him. Jim Bowden, the former Nats’ general manager who now works for The Athletic, has reported that Washington has offered more since then. The Phillies are supposed to meet with him. The White Sox have money. What to make of the Dodgers? It’s getting to the middle of January, and it’s still murky.
But any team considering Harper needs to be clear on something: Don’t get caught up in how long he wants to play for you. Ten years? For most players, no way. For Harper? Yes, please.
The appealing nature of a oneyear contract is that it hinders nothing about the franchise going forward. Yes, it would be impossible to have a roster that consisted of 25 one-year contracts. But the Nats’ deal with Dozier or, say, the one-year, $23million deal the Atlanta Braves gave to third baseman Josh Donaldson — a former MVP who’s coming off injuries and would like to rebuild his market — are both attractive for the clubs issuing them.
The Braves can benefit from Donaldson’s contributions as they try to repeat as National League East champs, but they’re neither blocking anyone in their own farm system nor chewing up money for future payrolls. The Nats believe in infield prospect Carter Kieboom, who’s just 21. If he’s ready in 2020, no problem.
But 10 years? Ten years is a commitment, and a rare one at that. In the history of the sport, there have been just seven 10year contracts — nine if you include deals to former Colorado Rockies Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki, contracts that were actually extensions added to existing deals.
It’s easy to concentrate on the decadelong deals — or even some shorter examples — that have been busts. Albert Pujols’ career on-base-plus slugging percentage with St. Louis was a robust 1.037. In the seven season since he signed a 10-year, $240-million deal with the Los Angeles Angels, it is a mediocre .768, and just .684 the past two seasons. The Angels owe him for three more years. Yuck.
Alex Rodriguez never saw the end of his 10-year contract with the New York Yankees. Prince Fielder retired five years into a nine-year contract signed with Detroit and later traded to Texas. What will become of Miguel Cabrera, who has played just three of the eight seasons he committed to with Detroit — at a total sum of $247 million — and managed just 38 games because of injuries in 2018?
Ten-year contracts, then, could cause owners and front offices to get queasy. The club is tying up an inordinate amount of payroll in a player whose performance five years from now, eight years from now, a decade from now is nearly impossible to project. That’s scary. I get it.
The thing is: None of that really applies to Harper.
As a player, Harper’s main tools are his power and selectivity. Harper’s chief tool in contract negotiations: his age.
I’d argue we don’t know enough yet about the contracts to Stanton (nine years remaining if he doesn’t opt out) and Votto (five years left). But we know that Rodriguez fell off precipitously under his second 10-year deal, and both Pujols and Cano are trending that way.
The dividing line becomes obvious: age. The one exception is Tulowitzki, whose health broke down before Toronto released him with two years and $38 million remaining on the contract.
The point is this: Saying 10year contracts are dangerous oversimplifies the matter. Bryce Harper will be 26 for the entirety of the 2019 season.