Against all odds, rays of hope for Ontario’s beleaguered Liberals

By any normal standard, the news over the past week should have been soul destroying for the already beleaguered Ontario Liberals.

It started when Marie-France Lalonde, the MPP for Ottawa-Orléans who had been considering a run for the party leadership, announced she was resigning and would seek the federal Liberal nomination in the same riding for the October general election.

Just a few days later Nathalie Des Rosiers, who may have had a serious shot at replacing former leader Kathleen Wynne, announced she was also quitting and would become principal of Massey College at the University of Toronto.

The back-to-back resignations reduced the party to just five seats in the legislature, a caucus so small it can hold its weekly meetings at a corner table at a Tim Hortons outlet.

On top of that, the Liberals still have no leader, no new policies, so little money it’s hard to properly staff the party headquarters and too many members still reeling from the crushing defeat the party suffered in last June’s election.

As Steve Paikin, host of TVO’s The Agenda and one of the most knowledgeable observers of Ontario politics, wrote this week, “the Liberals are pretty unmistakably conveying to the political world that they’re moving into penny-stock territory.”

Ouch!

But amid the doom and gloom there are tiny rays of hope for the Liberals.

First, polls show the party is slowly gaining in popularity. A new survey last week indicated the Liberals are now within spitting distance of both the Conservatives and NDP. The Pollara poll showed the NDP at 31 per cent support, Tories at 30 per cent, Liberals at 26 per cent and Greens at 11 per cent. In last June’s election the Tories received 40.5 per cent of the votes, NDP 33.6 per cent, Liberals 19.5 per cent and Greens 4.5 per cent.

Another poll by Environics Research showed 75 per cent of respondents feel the Ford government is on the wrong track, with only 24 per cent saying it is headed in the right direction.

What gives Liberals hope is that the NDP has failed to capitalize on the growing disenchantment with Premier Doug Ford. It has been the leaderless Liberals, as well as the Greens, that are benefiting.

Second, party organizers are thrilled that more than 800 delegates have already signed up to attend the party’s annual general meeting June 7-9 in Toronto. That’s an unprecedented large turnout for a non-election-year meeting, suggesting the party is far from dead.

Third, fundraising is slowly improving, although it is far below the level needed to run a modern party headquarters. Organizers point to what they say was a good response from members to a recent direct fundraising appeal by Greg Sorbara, a former cabinet minister and campaign manager.

Fourth, the race to replace Wynne as leader is well underway and is starting to create some buzz, albeit deep within party circles. The election is expected to be held in February or March.

Former cabinet ministers Steven Del Duca and Michael Coteau have already formally announced they are running. Former education minister Mitzie Hunter is actively campaigning, but has yet to formally declare her intentions. Several federal MPs may also enter the race if they lose in the October election.

At this stage, Del Duca is considered the front-runner. He’s already lined up veteran organizer Tom Allison to run his election team and raising the $600,000 needed to run a serious campaign should be no trouble.

True, these rays of hope are faint and the Liberals will face many more dark days.

But if the signs hold, as they may, then it’s far too early to write off the Liberals as a serious contender in the next election three years from now.