Lake Ontario continues to rise
Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority releases latest flood watch update
The water level on Lake Erie is still setting records but has stabilized, a report from Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority released Friday said.
As of May 22, Lake Erie’s static or calm water level was 175.08 metres, 76 centimetres above average and nine centimetres above the record-high set during the third quarter of May in 1986.
When asked if Niagara has seen the worst, Ryan Kitchen, a water resources technician with the conservation authority said he was “cautiously optimistic.”
“People still need to keep an eye out,” he added. “The water levels don’t account for waves or storm surge pushing those waves onto the shore.”
The flood alert level for Niagara remains at the orange or flood watch level, which means flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities.
Weather systems that generate strong sustained west to southwest winds could create a storm surge resulting in shoreline erosion due to damaging waves and localized flooding.
On Lake Ontario the water levels are still rising because of record flows from Lake Erie; however, the rate of rising had slowed due to favourable weather, reduced Ottawa River flows and increased flows out of Lake Ontario.
“They are allowed to let more water out of Lake Ontario with what has been going on along the Ottawa River,” Kitchen said.
“You have the Moses Saunders hydropower generation station in Cornwall which goes across the entire St. Lawrence River. That is the pinch point where Lake Ontario is regulated.
“They can balance the effects upstream and downstream. If the Ottawa River is flooding Montreal, they can hold back the St. Lawrence River at Cornwall.
“That’s what they have been doing, and that is why Lake Ontario has been on the rise of late. They haven’t been able to let out as much water as they like.”
The report said the water levels are still anticipated to rise over the coming week gradually.
As of May 22, the static water levels were at 75.81 metres, which is 76 centimetres above average for this time of year and seven centimetres below the record high levels set on May 25, 2017.
The International Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Board is forecasting a 50 per cent chance that levels will reach or exceed levels seen in 2017 within a week.
Since static water levels do not account for storm surge and wind-driven waves, residents with interests along Lake Ontario shoreline should pay close attention to any weather system that brings sustained winds from the east to northeast.
Much the same as Lake Erie, the resulting storm surge on Lake Ontario, could result in erosion due to damaging waves and localized flooding.