Cole is head of the free-agent class
Expect right-hander to earn richest contract ever signed by a pitcher
As major league franchises and their approach toward evaluating free agents evolves, so too does baseball’s process of free agency, once a free-for-all and now an often grim and protracted affair.
It is equal parts sprint and marathon and death march, depending on where a player lands on the spectrum. Sprint — for the nearest available deal if you’re a veteran on the wrong side of 30, knowing there’s a finite number of guaranteed jobs available with a cheap and unproven workforce ready to replace you. Marathon — for the very upper crust of the class, who once enjoyed a glorious process called a bidding war and now find themselves on the business end of a reverse auction, confined to “letting markets develop” while front office actuaries battle splash-seeking owners. And death march — for the player in between, who knows that the new year, or the start of spring training, or opening day, or perhaps even draft day may not be the signpost that marks them an employable commodity.
For the rest of us, the parlour game is on — who signs where, and for how much? As free agency opens, USA Today ranked the top available players (with age as of April 1, 2020) based on projected future performance and perceived market value:
1. GERRIT COLE, RH, 29
The Nationals and Astros just battled for the World Series by emphasizing elite starting pitching and other teams fell short by trying to cut corners on their rotation. And you’re saying there’s a right-hander hitting the market who just struck out 326 batters, led the AL in earned-run average (2.50) and fielding-independent pitching (2.64) and is just now coming into his own? You don’t need a Boras Corp. hat on your noggin to realize David Price’s record $217-million contract for a pitcher will be a mere starting point for Cole.
2. ANTHONY RENDON, 3B, 29
He destroyed the absurd “best player you’ve never heard of” narrative with a sublime postseason for the champion Nationals, collecting 10 extra-base hits, 15 RBI, a 1.003 OPS and a highlight reel of defensive artistry, all after hitting a career-best 34 homers. It’s his lifetime .369 on-base and .859 OPS that will make the sanguine Houston native the most-paid position player this winter.
3. STEPHEN STRASBURG RH, 30
How many deferred dollars can Strasburg avoid in his next deal by opting out now? It’s widely assumed he’ll re-sign with the Nationals after exercising an out clause three seasons into a seven-year, $175million (U.S.) deal. Strasburg did the Nationals a solid by structuring his deal to keep them at or below the luxury tax when he signed, and then pitched them to a World Series. Now, with Bryce Harper gone and Rendon likely to follow, he deserves a real contract to match the “big boy baseball,” as GM Mike Rizzo put it, that he provided them in October.
4. JOSH DONALDSON, 3B, 34
He made the most of his pillow contract — a $23-million oneyear deal — and his platform season, producing a .900 OPS and a year worthy of MVP consideration. And now, the musical chairs could work in his favour. Does Atlanta bring him back, unsure if Austin Riley is ready for the full-time gig? Will the Nationals grab him if Rendon leaves? Either way, a short-term, big-bucks deal (of the three-year, $75million variety) is possibly in the offing, giving Donaldson a nice $96-million haul over four years.
5. ZACK WHEELER, RH, 29
Suitors will see his relative youth paired with significant upside and line up quickly, viewing him as a more affordable rotation addition than Cole. Wheeler struck out 195 in 195 1 ⁄3 innings with the Mets, his finest year yet in a career often dogged by what he could be. Well, the smarter teams will see his potentially devastating three-pitch mix and imagine the possibilities. It will cost them, however.
6. NICK CASTELLANOS, OF, 28
He sprinted to the free agent market, posting a .321/.356/ .646 line in 51 games after a trade to Chicago, and like Wheeler provides a modicum of talent to dream upon. Castellanos has never hit more than the 27 homers he slugged this season but showed what his true ceiling could resemble once liberated from Detroit and Comerica Park.
7. MADISON BUMGARNER LH, 30
A decade after his big league debut, MadBum finally hits the market after his team-friendly deal expires, and does so in good shape. His 203 strikeouts with the Giants were his most since 2016, he made a major league-best 34 starts, his hits per nine steadied and his strikeout-walk ratio was his best over a full season since 2015. Likely still best served in a pitcher-friendly park, but his durability will be valued.
8. HYUN-JIN RYU, LH, 33
Ryu accepted the Dodgers’ $17.9-million qualifying offer and then started the all-star game in July, led the NL in ERA (2.32) and adjusted ERA (179). Now, he’ll be free of the QO, but his age and a lateseason fade (a 5.40 ERA over his last 40 innings) will suppress his value a bit.
9. JOSE ABREU, 1B/DH, 33
Perhaps the best pure power bat available, but in an era when everyone hits home runs, how much value does that carry? Still, Abreu bashed 33 homers, drove in 123 on a terrible White Sox team and his adjusted OPS ticked up to 119 in this year of the homer.
10. DALLAS KEUCHEL, LH, 32
And here he goes again. With a qualifying offer attached and his pride intact, Keuchel was banished to the sidelines until after the June draft and then performed admirably, given the circumstances, and earned the Game 1 playoff start for Atlanta. Keuchel is not everybody’s cup of tea — his peripherals are a nightmare and he will get hit, but he will also get outs. Keuchel’s strikeout-walk ratio (2.33) was his worst since his 2012 rookie season, but he pitched into at least the sixth inning in 12 of 19 starts, all of them quality, a remarkable feat given his lack of spring training.
11. YASMANI GRANDAL, C, 31
That class of 2018 just won’t go away, will it? Grandal took the Brewers’ qualifying offer-equivalent life preserver and improved almost across the board offensively, earning his first all-star nod since 2015. Naturally, another year is on his odometer now, but Grandal’s elite bat behind the plate and above-average framing ability should, finally, bring him multi-year salvation.
12. WILL SMITH, LH, 30
He’ll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery and coming off a season in which he cashed in 34 of 38 save opportunities and struck out 96 in 65 1 ⁄3 innings with the Giants. The top closer and lefty reliever on the market (albeit with a qualifying offer attached), a lucrative combo.
13. RICK PORCELLO, RH, 31
Porcello’s fate will generate the most debate/consternation/ angst of any player on the market. Why? His free agency pits his nine consecutive seasons of at least 28 starts and 172 innings pitched vs. his very bad platform year in Boston. We view Porcello as a decent bounceback candidate, especially given his plight in 2019 — a short off-season after some very intensive 2018 post-season innings and a .308 batting average on balls in play that was 10 points higher than league average. A team outside the AL East should be able to harvest Porcello’s better side.
14. JAKE ODORIZZI, RH, 30
Minnesota unlocked the best of Odorizzi, limiting his liability in many starts — he pitched just 159 innings — and enabling him to post career bests in adjusted ERA (131), FIP (3.36) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.1). “Odo” has never quite fused the abilities to gobble innings at an elite level, which will keep him from getting No. 1 or even No. 2 starter money. But he’ll be a nice multi-year rotation cog in the right hands.
15. MARCELL OZUNA, LF, 29
He was a two-time all-star and patrolled centre field with aplomb in Miami, but Ozuna had health and performance problems in two seasons in St. Louis. The now-left fielder produced OBPs of .325 and .328 for the Cardinals, who traded for him after he hit 37 homers and reached at a .376 clip in 2017. His raw power remains elite, but in this offensive environment, teams aren’t likely to place a huge bet on him approaching his Marlins levels of production.