Will Niagara experience Thanksgiving virus hit?
Cases will start appearing in data soon: Hirji
The next few days will tell if Niagara will experience a turkey fueled rise in COVID-19 cases, or whether the region heeded the warnings of public health officials during the holiday long weekend.
Dr. Mustafa Hirji, Niagara’s acting medical officer of health, said Friday that if new cases were generated during Thanksgiving weekend get-togethers they will start showing up in the data over the weekend.
“We know that not everyone is going to listen to our advice,” said Hirji, who urged Niagara residents to keep their Thanksgiving gatherings small and limited to their households or a very small social bubble. “The question is, did enough people listen and keep those gatherings small to limit the spread of COVID-19? We will find out soon.”
There have been around five cases so far linked to the Thanksgiving weekend, Hirji said. But given that it can take more than a week for some infected people to show symptoms, get tested and receive the results, if there are more cases from that weekend those results will start coming in soon.
Part of Hirji’s concern stems from the Labour Day long weekend in September. Hirji has said the second COVID-19 wave started in Niagara in earnest after that weekend, and several cases have been linked to gatherings where people did not socially distance, wear masks and were with people outside their circles or households.
Hirji said if there is no Thanksgiving-related rise in COVID-19 cases, it could be the opportunity to start bringing Niagara’s infection rate down.
Although the post-summer wave has resulted in a higher number of daily COVID-19 cases in Niagara, the infection rate appears to have levelled off at its new high.
“What is somewhat encouraging is that we have not really seen an increase. Some days the number are up a bit, or down a bit, but they have pretty much levelled off,” Hirji said. “We aren’t seeing the kinds of increases you see in the GTA. If it stays that way, then perhaps we are in a position to really start to bring those numbers back down again.”
There were eight new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Niagara Friday — the first day of single-digit case growth after four consecutive days of double-digit growth.
That brings Niagara’s cumulative COVID-19 case total to 1,311, with 86 of those cases currently active. Three people are currently being treated at the Niagara Health hospital in St. Catharines.
At least 69 Niagara residents with the virus have died.
Hirji said the days of doubledigit growth have pushed up the local reproductive number of the virus — a pivotal metric watched by the provincial government.