Housing starts down in June
New
housing starts went down in St. John’s last month and longterm are expected to fall, according to two new reports.
According to figures released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) last week, June’s housing starts in the region totalled 237 units — 173 single-detached starts plus 64 multiples — compared with 278 units in June 2011. The year-to-date stats, though, show a little more growth, with the total of 931 up 14.5 per cent from 813 by this time last year.
On Friday, the Conference Board of Canada released its monthly cross-country forecast, which predicts short-term strength in the St. John’s housing market, but gradually lowering starts over the next five years.
Jane McIntyre, chief economist for the Conference Board, said the board builds its projections partly on CMHC’s stats as well as Statistics Canada’s residential permits data.
“We look at whether residential permits have moved up over the last six months, versus where they were six months ago,” she said. “If they’ve moved up over the last six months, that gives us an indication there is some room for some growth over the short term. St. John’s is a positive, which means that your permits data is up over where it was six months ago.”
Given the demographic requirements of the city, the high level of housing starts is unsustainable, she said.
“So what we think’s going to happen over the longer term is we’ll see some decline,” she said. “So it’s not to say that the market’s going to crash or anything like that, it’s just going to weaken.”