Do the math on fish recovery

I commend Ashley Fitzpatrick and The Telegram on the recent series dealing with Newfoundland and Labrador’s fisheries. You have prompted me to share my own thoughts on the matter of our marine resources.

We in Newfoundland and Labrador are blessed with de facto jurisdiction over a large chunk of one of Earth’s greatest marine ecosystems — the Northwest Atlantic. We know its history and we know its current state; but we do not dare project where it’s heading and what we need to do if we want to maximize its sustainable value.

There are definite signs the previously dominant groundfish species are making a comeback.

Does anyone know what a fully restored groundfish industry might look like? How realistic is a cod recovery?

I understand the productive capacity of the Northwest Atlantic remains strong. Rising ocean temperatures are expected to improve that capacity. DFO’s cod research suggests that, left to grow, a cod biomass might be expected to increase by 18 per cent a year, presumably to some long-term equilibrium within its ecosystem.

Just for argument’s sake, there might have been 100 thousand tonnes of cod swimming around, not harvested when the moratorium was put in place in 1992. Starting with this biomass of 100 thousand tonnes, and increasing at 18 per cent a year, the volume grows to a total biomass approaching eight million tonnes by year 25.

But here’s the rub. The growth in the biomass is back-end loaded. It takes more than 15 years to reach 20 per cent of its maximum. However, in the last four to five years of this 25-year restora- tion period, the volume doubles from four million to eight million tonnes.

That’s just simple math — more fish, bigger fish compounding year after year to some maximum volume. So, here we are today. DFO (Scientist John Bratty … The Telegram, Dec. 22 is saying the cod biomass is at 15 per cent of its 1980s level — after having declined to less than one per cent as of 1992.

We have invested 22 years in our cod moratorium and we might now have a total cod biomass of one million tonnes. If we open this fishery, say next year, the total stock might sustain an annual harvest of 100 thousand to 150 thousand tonnes, presumably in perpetuity.

Waiting another five to eight years might mean a sustainable annual harvest of 400+ thousand tonnes, again, in perpetuity.

I appreciate this is very much an oversimplification.

My point is that the math needs to be done — by professionals, and it needs to be shared with the public. We need to know where we are now in terms of ecosystem recovery and how long before we are able to obtain maximum sustainable return on those resources.

We are standing at a decision gate (to use NALCOR’s Ed Martin’s lingo).

If we were considering a mine or oilfield, or hydro project, stakeholders would demand in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of these investments. It is time the math is done on a resource that trumps them all — the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem.

If it is determined that the rate of increase in groundfish stocks are just beginning to explode, so to speak, then now is definitely not the time to relax the moratorium.

The costs of maintaining a moratorium could be substantial and would be borne, disproportionately, by current shellfish enterprises and related service providers.

Yet, full restoration of our marine ecosystem could generate much greater benefits to those same enterprises, albeit in the future.

Are there creative ways all those with a stake in the fishing industry might embrace full ecosystem restoration? Can we ensure ownership of a future, restored ecosystem for current stakeholders?

Maybe that elusive $400-million CETA compensation fund could be redirected towards the (much more considerable) cost of completing what could be, if we willed it, one of the greatest ecosystem restoration projects on the planet.

At that point, we might righteously demand, and actually be granted custodial management of the nose and tail of the Grand Banks — something that will never happen unless we can demonstrate results of our own commitment to the restoration of this ecosystem.

As an aside, while we wait to fully restore our Northwest Atlantic ecosystem, some time might best be used to come up with smarter marketing, processing and harvesting strategies for the future, i.e., determine what higher value plate we want our sustainable fish placed on, and exactly how we plan to get it there.

I believe we have the brains to do it all.

Don Hogan St. John’s