HOW MIGHT THE NEW GENERATION SWAY THE VOTE? EXPERTS WEIGH IN ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
If David Coletto were a betting man, he’d be hard pressed to pick a winning horse in this dead heat.
Coletto is the CEO of Abacus Data and the two horses are none other than the federal Liberals and Conservatives, who are in a virtual dead heat at 35 per cent for the Conservatives and 33 per cent for the Liberals in his firm’s latest opinion poll released on Sept. 14.
But Coletto is well aware the millennial generation, which he defines as anyone born between 1980 and 2000, is the tiebreaker. On their shoulders rest the political futures of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, with New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh trailing a distant third.
“In a way, the future is in their hands here, in terms of the choice they make and I hope that they exercise their power to make their voice heard,” said Coletto, speaking from Abacus Data’s Ottawa office.
“There will be more millennial voters than baby boomers.”
The outcome depends on whether the Liberals can mobilize a similar level of enthusiasm among youth as they did in 2015, or at least persuade enough of them to overlook setbacks like the recent SNC Lavalin controversy.
Meantime, the Conservatives are relying more on their base, according to Coletto, and could win if younger voters stay home while their more right-leaning parents and grandparents cast their ballots.
Coletto likened the upcoming campaign to Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012, when he won a second term and enjoyed continued support from younger Americans, but failed to spark the kind of enthusiasm he enjoyed in 2008.
“The Conservatives are well-positioned, but they have a real challenge widening their audience,” said Coletto.
At 38, Coletto is himself a millennial and well aware of the issues facing his generation that could sway the Oct. 21 federal election.
In his view, the top issue for all Canadians is the cost of living, with millennials being 13 points more likely to rate this as their biggest worry, according to Abacus’s own statistics.
Following close behind is housing affordability, especially in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where both property prices and rental costs have skyrocketed.
“These two issues I think are front and centre,” said Coletto. “How do I achieve a standard of living I’ve kinda come to expect, or was even promised?”
Linked in to housing affordability and living costs is the increasing difficulty millennials are facing in finding a stable, well-paid job, at a time when precarious, part-time and low-wage employment is becoming more common.
Other issues affecting millennials are a lack of support for people with mental illness or addictions, the rise of the racist right and of course climate change.
“There’s a subset who is intensely concerned about this issue,” said Coletto.
The state of healthcare and the environment are hotbutton issues for Liberals and left-wingers nationwide and could swing the vote.
Assuming, of course, people actually bother showing up on Election Day.
But Don Desserud at the University of Prince Edward Island thinks this election will be an “apathetic” one for millennials.
Voter apathy means gains for the Conservatives in P.E.I., while the federal Green Party may score some local wins and the federal New Democratic Party will likely perform sluggishly.
“The Conservative Party is polling much better in Prince Edward Island than I thought they would,” said Desserud.
He said it was easy for many voters to feel turned off by electoral politics, as “party after party after party,” promises to govern differently but instead falls short on their promises. For example, Desserud said political parties often renege on environmental promises.
As such, voters often do not see the link between voting and impact, a situation made worse by politicians’ failure to address issues like job security. At the same time, living costs in P.E.I. are climbing.
Desserud said the former provincial Liberal government took credit for a growing economy, without understanding the predicament faced by younger voters.
“The lack of security, or job precarity, is a huge issue,” said Desserud. “(Economic growth) is not translating into solid jobs with a future. People do not see a long-term future for the employment they have.”
Desserud said healthcare is also a tricky issue for millennials, as it is easy to feel immortal at a young age, when most people do not experience major health problems. That said, a major health-related concern for many is finding a family doctor, who are often in short supply both in P.E.I. and elsewhere in Atlantic Canada.
While Desserud noted many millennials are feeling indifferent towards the election, it does not mean they aren’t politically active citizens.
According to a report issued this year by the Samara Centre for Democracy, 71 per cent of youth aged 18-39 expressed interest in federal politics, compared to 73 per cent of those aged 30-55 and 84 per cent of people over 56. The report sampled 4,054 Canadian residents over 18.
Meantime, youth lead the way in civic engagement and activism, even as voting numbers continue to lag.
For example, the report notes 51 per cent have encouraged others to take action on a political or social issue, compared to 40 per cent of those in the 30-55 group and 32 per cent over people over 56. Samara’s numbers show 66 per cent of 18-29s have signed a petition, compared to 55 per cent of 30-55s and 53 per cent of those over 56.
Twenty-eight per cent have partaken in demonstrations and protests, compared to 18 per cent of 30-55s and just nine per cent over those over 56.
“They see other ways they can manifest their political and social interests outside traditional parties,” said Desserud.
Issues that motivate activism outside elective politics may include anti-pesticide campaigns, or the ongoing school strikes protesting politicians’ inaction on climate change, both in Canada and worldwide.
On top of the activism, people are increasingly breaking with traditions and voting with their hearts at election time, for politicians speaking directly to their interests.
“I think that they’re more willing to demand their politicians follow through,” said Desserud. “The idea that we see, particularly in Atlantic Canada, about voting the way your parents vote has declined considerably. These patterns are no longer valid. I’d liken it to church attendance.”