Like it or not, the Atlantic bubble is here
Dalhousie expert endorses the move, but says vigilance, reaction time critical
Today Atlantic Canada becomes one province — at least in terms of mobility.
The so-called Atlantic bubble — the opening of borders to quarantine-free travel between the four provinces — comes with some jubilation, but also no shortage of fear and even anger by many in Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as in P.E.I.
After two months with only one new case, some wonder if Newfoundland is now throwing away all its efforts over the past three months to contain the virus that causes COVID-19. Informal polls and Facebook pages like NL Proud are garnering hundreds of comments, with a solid majority condemning the move.
Experts, however, counter the time is right for the bubble.
The picture across the board is actually quite similar in terms of COVID-19 cases.
As Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Janice Fitzgerald pointed out Monday, there are very few cases in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The former has had a trickle of one-case days this week, but nothing before that since June 13. The latter hasn’t had a case in more than a week.
P.E.I., like this province, has no active cases.
Reached in Nova Scotia Thursday, epidemiologist Dr. Susan Kirkland says she understands the fears.
“I do understand people’s concern,” said Kirkland, head of the community health and epidemiology department at Dalhousie University. “And I think that we’ve been conditioned to that in a way. But I think the reality is that at this particular moment in time, the risk is relatively low.”
More importantly, she said, the relaxed borders are by no means mandatory, and can be shut again on a moment’s notice.
“The reality is, right now, the epidemiology is telling us that it’s OK to relax some of the conditions,” she said. “The minute it no longer becomes that way, then I think we have to move backwards, and the thing is if we are very nimble and we are very aware and we are doing good surveillance all the way along, and we start to see the uptick, we can just move it back one little notch. We won’t have to go back into complete lockdown.”
Some of Kirkland’s observations echoed those of Fitzgerald, who said public-health workers are much more prepared and experienced now than they were in March.
As well, they both say the key factor is that the public maintains the vigilance it has learned after months of lockdown — minimizing contacts, washing hands, keeping two metres from others and wearing a mask in indoor public spaces.
Adherence to the latter recommendation has been abysmal, Kirkland admits.
“People are really, really worried about the risk of other people coming in from other countries, but they’re still not willing to wear a mask,” she said. “I don’t understand that.”
On that front, St. John’s International Airport announced Thursday it will require passengers and staff to wear masks in the terminal at all times. Halifax airport made them mandatory on June 19.
St. John’s airport will also not allow others to enter the airport unless under exceptional circumstances, and will only supply masks in special situations.
Asked about the fact this province still has a travel ban on most non-residents, Kirkland said she doesn’t see it making a difference.
“That isn’t going to change, bubble or not,” she said. “I think we need to keep the two things separate. Because whether we have an Atlantic Bubble or whether we don’t, those things are still going to occur.”
In fact, the Department of Health confirmed Thursday that 8,212 exemptions have been granted to travellers to date. Those not from Atlantic Canada will still have to selfisolate for 14 days.
Like most experts, Kirkland predicts there will be a second wave of the coronavirus either in the fall or early winter. That’s part of the reason she says the current relaxation of travel is a good idea, while the risk is low.
But the timing and impact of that second wave is a big unknown.
Newfoundland Health Minister Dr. John Haggie agrees.
“Whether it’s a wave or a wavelet depends on which set of projections you look at from the Public Health Agency of Canada,” he said this week. “Our modelling team is having a little difficulty modelling anything on the basis of over a month of zeroes.”