The tropics have been quiet, but why?
During the last few weeks, we’ve talked a lot about heat, humidity and, for some, the lack of rainfall. But to this point, there hasn’t been much chatter about the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
You will recall forecasters have predicted another aboveaverage Atlantic hurricane season, with the National Hurricane Center predicting a total of 14 to 21 named storms this year.
To date, we’ve had three named storms in the Atlantic basin — tropical storms Alex, Bonnie and Colin.
It raises the question that, based on what was predicted, has it been unusually quiet, and if so, why?
The average from 19902020 for the Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms. The statistics from the National Hurricane Center show we don’t have three named storms usually until Aug. 3, so we’re technically running ahead of schedule.
It might seem quieter because the past two seasons were extremely active — we had five named storms at this point in 2021 and nine named storms in 2020.
Conditions this month have also been highly unfavourable for tropical development.
Multiple plumes of Saharan dust have blown off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic. This dust dries the air in the atmosphere, which suppresses tropical cyclone development.
Upper-level winds have also been stronger than usual, making it challenging for storms to develop.
Despite this, experts predict conditions will become favourable heading through August and the projection of an aboveaverage season is still forecast.
We should also remember that activity in the Atlantic historically ramps up in August and peaks in early September.