Poilievre’s secret weapon in quest to be PM? Millennial voters
OTTAWA — If Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre romps to victory in the next federal election, his triumph may be fuelled by an unlikely source: young people.
Millennials now outnumber baby boomers as the largest demographic and, according to Abacus Data, they are leaning towards the political right as they face mounting pressure from the cost of living and housing affordability crises.
Support for the Liberals among millennials has dwindled from 45 per cent in 2015 to just 20 per cent today, wrote David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, in a recent article on Substack.
Meanwhile, millennial support for Conservatives has skyrocketed to 41 per cent, higher than in 2011 when the party was last elected to government. Coletto’s data defines millennials as those born between 1980 and 2000, although some sources point to 1996 as the generational cut-off.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won the millennial vote in the 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal elections but, with the next federal election scheduled for the fall of 2025, millennial voters are looking elsewhere.
Coletto says these voters are making decision on the issues, rather than the image of the leaders.
“They are much more focused on understanding how dissatisfied they may be over the performance of the federal government but listening for solutions from the other parties on the issues they care most about,” says Coletto.
More people are voting with cost of living and housing affordability in mind as younger generations are priced out of things that came easier to their parents and grandparents, like owning a home, groceries, and having more disposable income.
That’s even pushing out other issues, like climate change, that have traditionally been important to young people. Recent Abacus Data shows that climate change is a top policy priority for 28 per cent of baby boomers and only 19 per cent of millennials.
It comes as no surprise that millennials are focusing on more pressing, short-term issues when “it’s their wallet that are most squeezed,” says Paul Kershaw, professor at the University of British Columbia and founder of the Generation Squeeze Lab.
He says they may still care for climate solutions, but they are not afforded the opportunity to prioritize both.