Unsettled, but N.L. to avoid late-week storm
Snow in the forecast is no late April fools’ joke as some of us will experience a late-season taste of winter during this first week of April.
A trough of low-pressure over the midwestern U.S. is approaching the Great Lakes and will stall. A second area of low-pressure will develop within this moisture on the lee of the Appalachian Mountains Wednesday night and it’s that low that will stall near Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine before pushing eastward this weekend.
Precipitation will arrive southwest to northeast across Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island through Thursday and Thursday night — beginning first as snow but mixing to rain. Periods of rain and snow will continue Friday and possibly Saturday but should become more scattered.
It looks like Newfoundland and Labrador will escape this weather with just chances of showers and flurries through Saturday. A separate low could bring more widespread snow or rain later this weekend into early next week.
For those expecting this weather, the big question is how much snow, rain and will there be wind? A fair amount of uncertainty remains and there are several additional factors to consider in April that a weather model can’t pick up on.
Snowfall amounts between two to 10 cm serve as a good base right now, with up to 15-plus cm not being ruled out over higher elevations. Two to 10-plus mm of rain is also forecast with pockets of 10 to 20 mm.
But could snowfall amounts get higher than that?
If cold air can sustain itself then amounts could locally exceed 15 cm but it would be harder to break 20 cm. I expect over the Cape Breton Highlands and mountainous terrain in northern New Brunswick where the snowpack remains and it could be a touch cooler, that amounts will be higher — possibly exceeding 30 cm.
Strong northeast and east winds will accompany the weather with peak gusts between 40 and 70 km/h, except 70 to 90-plus km/h in southwestern Nova Scotia.
It might be April, but the snow is not finished with us yet.