Accuracy of northern cod stock assessment questioned
Confirmation that northern cod is still in the cautious zone is good news for the fishing industry, but harvesters and processors say the numbers may be even better than what scientists are indicating.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) held a technical briefing on the northern cod stock assessment on Tuesday, March 26.
Last October, DFO announced that after reviewing the stock using a new model, northern cod was no longer in the critical zone — a level at which the advice is to keep fishing levels as low as possible in order to sustain the health of the population.
A survey of northern cod was also conducted in the fall and, after reviewing the latest assessment of the stock between March 18-21, DFO has determined the stock remains in the cautious zone and is doing slightly better than what last October’s review indicated.
NO GROWTH
While the new approach shows northern cod is healthier than previously thought, DFO says the stock has not shown growth since 2016 and, even with no fishing, the risk of decline over the next three years is moderately high.
“Factors such as natural mortality and ecosystem conditions, including lower capelin availability, are negatively impacting northern cod growth,” the latest stock assessment reported.
“Increased fishing removals increases the risk of the stock declining back into the critical zone.”
There has not been a commercial northern cod fishery since the moratorium was announced in 1992, except for a small inshore stewardship fishery, and harvesters and processors alike are eagerly awaiting the return of northern cod.
ACCURACY QUESTIONED
Alberto Wareham is president and CEO of Icewater Seafoods, a fish plant in Arnold’s Cove that processes only cod.
The plant employs 200 people and operated double shifts for 26 weeks last year.
Between 2018 and 2020, Icewater invested $15 million in new technology to ensure its place in the market, including supplying cod to prestigious customers such as Marks and Spencer — a British retailer that has high standards for quality and sustainability.
Wareham said he welcomes any good news when it comes to the northern cod stock, but the numbers could be better than what DFO has shown, because last fall’s survey was done about four to six weeks earlier than usual and may have missed a lot of the stock.
“It’s great we had a survey, but doing the survey early leads to questions about the accuracy of the survey and the projections in the survey,” Wareham said.
“I guess we have to wait another year and, hopefully, the next survey will be done at the historical survey time period. Then you’ll be able to have better comparative numbers.
“But we have to deal with what we have today.”
DFO acknowledged during the technical briefing that “the 2023 survey was earlier than usual and it is possible that a portion of the stock hadn’t yet migrated offshore.”
‘HIGH CATCH RATES’
The union that represents harvesters and fish plant workers in Newfoundland and Labrador echoed Wareham’s concerns about the timing of the survey.
DFO’S assessment doesn’t line up with what harvesters are experiencing, said the FFAW.
“Harvesters report extremely high catch rates, very low net soak times and big, healthy fish,” FFAW president Greg Pretty stated in a news release.
“Fishing mortality remains very low, and this is all good news for the stock and our fishery.”
STILL MIGRATING
Because the survey was earlier in both NAFO Zones 2J and 3K, when fish are still in the inshore areas, the union believes DFO’S assessment underestimates the health of the stock.
Given that fish migrate from inshore areas from October through to December, the FFAW stated, an earlier survey means that more fish were likely missed, which would drive down the estimate of the stock status and increase estimates of natural mortality.
“We look forward to seeing the results of next year’s assessment and confirming that the resource is in an even better position than DFO asserts,” Pretty stated.