Most Canadians think economy is on the wrong track, poll finds
The latest GDP numbers from Statistics Canada showed the economy expanded 0.6 per cent in January, beating estimates of 0.4 per cent.
Despite forecasts for stronger-than-expected growth in early 2024, a majority of Canadians just don’t like where the economy is headed , according to the latest results of a long-running survey of households’ financial outlook.
Two-thirds of Canadians believe the economy is on the wrong track — 66 per cent, up from a prior reading of 64 per cent — with the negative view widely held across most regions of the country, Maru Public Opinion found in its March survey. Almost threequarters of Albertans viewed the economy negatively, up seven percentage points from February, followed closely by Ontario, at 70 per cent, a six-percentage-point increase. Just over two-thirds of Quebecers viewed the economy negatively as did 55 per cent of British Columbians.
The latest results also reveal that many Canadians don’t expect either the national economy (61 per cent) or their local economy (59 per cent) to improve over the next two months. Both results were up slightly from February.
“The findings reveal a public profoundly discouraged about the state of the national economy, burdened by acute personal financial pressures, and harbouring deepening insecurities about the economic trajectory for themselves personally and the nation,” said John Wright, executive vicepresident of Maru, in a press release on Thursday. “Negative sentiment is pervasive across multiple dimensions, underscoring the formidable headwinds confronting both consumer confidence and the nation’s broader economic prospects.”
That “negative sentiment” is washing over gross domestic product forecasting that continues to be upgraded by some of Canada’s largest financial and economic institutions.
The latest GDP numbers from Statistics Canada showed the economy expanded 0.6 per cent in January, beating estimates of 0.4 per cent. The data agency also included a flash estimate for February for growth of 0.4 per cent, which compelled some big bank economists to predict first-quarter GDP of 2.5 per cent. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada raised its forecast for growth in its new Monetary Policy Report.
Maru’s finding show that the stronger economy isn’t being reflected in the day-today lives of a large number of consumers.
For example, a larger proportion of Canadians said their personal financial position deteriorated in March — 24 per cent, compared with 23 per cent in February. Those most likely to have reported a deterioration in their view of their financial position included people in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, women, the survey’s 18-34 age group, and those in the lowest income bracket earning less than $50,000.
More than half of Canadians said their daily and family finances would pose an ongoing worry over the next two months. Further, 90 per cent said it was not very likely that they would a buy a house during the next 60 days.
On the flip side, an increasing number of people in British Columbia and Alberta and those earning incomes of $50,000 to $99,000 said their personal had finances improved.
Given persistent negativity, there was nothing to put upward pressure on Maru’s Household Outlook Index, which remained unchanged at 87 and firmly in negative territory.
Anything below 100 on the index — which measures Canadians’ outlook on the economy and their personal finances — indicates negative sentiment and anything above indicates optimism. It has been stuck in the red since December 2021 and hit its most pessimistic reading of 83 in March 2023.