Canada’s 2024 wildfire season expected to be even worse than last year’s

Last year’s wildfire season broke records for its intensity and resulted in Canada’s firstever evacuation of an entire capital city — Yellowknife. Smoke from the fires also impacted air quality not only nationally, but in the United States as well.

Coming out of an intense season that garnered internal attention, federal officials are warning Canadians to prepare for another record-breaking year.

Due to a mild winter and warmer year, this wildfire season is looking to be worse, not better, than the last. Here’s what to expect for the spring and summer, what to know about the fires, and how officials are preparing for what’s to come.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FOR THE 2024 WILDFIRE SEASON?

“The temperature trends are very concerning. With the heat and dryness across the country we can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner and end later and potentially be more explosive,” said Minister of Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan, at an April 10 technical briefing.

Early spring forecasts predict an above normal fire risk for western Canada, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec in April. In May, the Prairies, eastern and southern British Columbia, northern Ontario, and western Quebec will be affected. Looking into the summer, long-range fire forecasts are unclear, as forecasting the precipitation that affects these conditions is difficult.

WHY COULD THIS BE A BAD YEAR FOR WILDFIRES?

The warm fall and winter conditions throughout the country, as well as droughts, and minimal snowfall are all factors that contribute to a more intense fire season. Next to no snowfall from December to February in essential areas like southern B.C. and the Prairies impacted the moisture levels of the soil, and also increased the fire risk.

Spring and summer weather conditions also affect the wildfire season risk. The federal government said these conditions are set to be impacted by both the ongoing effects of climate change and it being an El Niño weather pattern year, meaning weather conditions are warmer than average.

HOW BAD WAS LAST YEAR’S WILDFIRE SEASON?

“Last year was Canada’s most destructive wildfire season in recorded history. The scale of the fires, global smoke effects, the length of the season, and the national impacts, all contributed to the worst season that Canadians have ever seen,” said Sajjan.

There were 6,623 fires last year, and 15 million hectares were burned. This was seven times the yearly average over the last ten years. Over 327 megatons of carbon was released from the burning of the wildfires, with the previous record being 138 megatons in 2014.

There were eight firefighter deaths and 230,000 evacuations.

Wildfire smoke was seen in parts of the United States, and Canada’s wildfire crisis garnered international support and attention.