How U.S. allies are preparing for a possible second Trump term
Everywhere, U.S. allies are taking steps to defend or advance their interests in the event former President Donald Trump returns to power in November elections.
BERLIN/MEXICO CITY/ WASHINGTON — Germany is waging a charm offensive inside the Republican Party. Japan is lining up its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government officials are talking to Camp Trump. And Australia is busy making laws to help Trump-proof its U.S. defense ties.
Everywhere, U.S. allies are taking steps to defend or advance their interests in the event former President Donald Trump returns to power in November elections, an even chance based on recent opinion polls in swing states.
They want to avoid the cold slap that Trump’s “America First” policies dealt them last time around, which included trade wars, a shakeup of security alliances, an immigration crackdown and the withdrawal from a global climate accord.
Reuters spoke to diplomats and government officials in five continents about preparations for Trump 2.0. It uncovered Mexican deliberations over a new, Trumpsavvy foreign minister, an Australian envoy’s role in rushing to protect a submarine deal, and a German official’s talks with Republican state governors.
Some foreign leaders have contacted Trump directly despite the risk of irking his election rival, Democratic President Joe Biden. Saudi’s crown prince recently phoned Trump, a source with knowledge of the conversation said; while Hungary’s prime minister and Poland’s president met him in person in recent weeks.
British Foreign Minister David Cameron also held talks with Trump this month at his Florida resort. He told reporters in Washington afterwards that his meeting was a private dinner where they discussed Ukraine, the Israelgaza war, and the future of NATO.
The White House referred Reuters to comments by spokesperson Karine Jeanpierre in which she said meetings such as the one held by Cameron were not uncommon. She declined to answer questions about Trump’s meeting with Orban or the Saudi call, which was first reported by the New York Times.
The campaign said he discussed security issues with each of the European leaders, including a proposal by Polish President Andrzej Duda that NATO members spend at least 3 per cent of gross domestic product on defense. Currently, they aim to spend 2 per cent.
Jeremi Suri, a presidential historian at the University of Texas, said meetings between candidates and diplomats were normal, but said he thought Trump’s meeting with Orban and the call with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman were unusual.
Trump adviser Brian Hughes said: “Meetings and calls from world leaders reflect the recognition of what we already know here at home. Joe Biden is weak, and when President Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the world will be more secure and America will be more prosperous.”
The campaign did not respond in detail to questions about the other findings in this story, but campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said: “America’s allies are anxiously hoping that President Trump will be reelected.”
GERMANY’S “BYPASS DIPLOMACY”
Much of the Trump outreach has been less direct than meetings with the candidate.
Germany has been building bridges with Trump’s Republican base at a state level, reminding party officials that it invests heavily in U.S. industry.
Mindful that Trump threatened punitive tariffs on Germany’s car industry while president, and now wants to slap a minimum 10 per cent tariff on all imports if returned to office, Germany is using a transatlantic coordinator to ready for Trump 2.0.
As co-ordinator, Michael Link is leading what Berlin calls “bypass diplomacy”, crisscrossing the union, targeting swing states where Germany is a heavy investor.
“It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were re-elected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on goods from the EU,” he told Reuters.
He said he had met Republican governors of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and Indiana. At each stop, he explains why good trade ties underpin
Germany’s U.S. presence. The biggest exporter of U.s.-made cars is BMW, and Germany says it employs 860,000 Americans directly and indirectly.
Link has also been meeting Democratic officials, but lobbying those who can influence Trump is his priority.
Reuters could not determine if Trump was aware of Berlin’s approach.
TRUMP-FRIENDLY FACES
In Mexico, government officials have been meeting people close to Trump on issues including migration and the trafficking of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the United States, both issues where Mexico could face more U.S. pressure under another Trump administration, according to two Mexico-based sources.
Trump has said he would order the Pentagon “to make appropriate use of special forces” to attack cartel leadership and infrastructure, which would be unlikely to get the blessing of the Mexican government.
The Mexican officials also discussed the North American free trade deal, last rewritten under the Trump presidency in 2020 and up for review in 2026, the sources added. Trump has praised his rewrite of that deal in recent public remarks.
And in a sign of how much personal relationships matter under Trump, Mexico’s ruling party is considering alternative candidates to appoint as the next foreign minister depending on whether Trump or Biden looks most likely to win, said two sources familiar with the deliberations.
Mexico holds its own presidential election in June.