Leafs need to fix penalty kill to avoid early playoff exit
When Sheldon Keefe took over as coach of the Maple Leafs five years ago, one mandate was rather clear.
Fix the penalty kill.
It had been embarrassing in the three playoff seasons with the famed Mike Babcock as head coach. The Leafs were outscored 19-10 in playoff losses to Boston (twice) and Washington once.
That was a long time ago. That was a whole lot of assistant coaches and player changes and system alterations ago. But the problem remains and it is killing the Leafs again this playoff series against the Boston Bruins.
They can’t seem to stop a Boston team that had struggled on the power play from scoring with the man advantage.
But the total after three games is Boston 5, Toronto 1 on special teams.
Boston is outscoring the Leafs 11-6 in the series. The five-goal difference between the teams essentially comes from the four-goal differential on special teams.
The Shanahan-era Leafs have been in the playoffs for eight straight seasons, which by itself is impressive. What’s not impressive, this group has been outscored 42-28 with the man advantage over those playoff years.
Only once — in the fivegame playoff series that wasn’t really a playoff series against Columbus — have they outscored the opposition on special teams. And that was by a 2-0 score in a series they had no business losing.
In only one of the years that included a best-of-seven playoff series have the Leafs had penalty killing above 80 per cent, which is a bottom kind of number that winning teams strive for. Carolina led the NHL in penalty killing at 86.4 per cent. Boston led the league last season at 87.4 per cent.
The Leafs finished 23rd — that’s soft — in penalty killing during the season. If you take away the empty net goal from Wednesday night’s game the club is still only at 55 per cent success rate, which is the kind of number that can get a coach fired.
Head coaches and assistant coaches. Entire staffs also.
Coaching hockey in the playoffs is something of a delicate exercise. It’s not like basketball, where a coach is in control of so much of what goes on in the game. It’s not like football, where every offensive play is structured and called from the sidelines or the coaching boxes.
Hockey is a random game. The goals, primarily, are scored, after mistakes are made by the opponent. During a game, a coach can change lines, he can determine who gets how much ice time, he can try and work his matchups — but there’s not more to be done unless you’re Scotty Bowman or one of those in-game geniuses.
The real work is done between games. Adjusting. Breaking down film. Determining who can and who can’t be trusted in which situations. Translating those adjustments to the players is primary. Coaches such as Joel Quenneville, who won three Stanley Cups in Chicago and was a master of playoff adjustments. Keefe has yet to stand out in that area.
He occasionally has been dealt a bad hand, though, especially for penalty killing, by the roster construction of the Leafs. It’s odd to say this, but the Leafs missed defenceman Justin Holl this season, who was more effective down a man than he was at even strength. And they never have come close to replacing what Ryan O’reilly could do shorthanded.
So now you look at the Toronto roster and you try to determine — as Keefe and his staff are doing — how best to line up against the Bruins. Even strength and shorthanded.
The Leafs scored 36 more goals than Boston during the season, but 55 of those Toronto goals are missing with William Nylander and Bobby Mcmann yet to appear in the Maple Leafs lineup. That makes the margin for error with the Leafs even tighter than it might have been before.
Keefe has to find scoring replacements within his lineup on one hand, and determine the right choices on those who will play in shorthanded situations.
This is a tight series. The Boston goaltending, especially in the games played by Jeremy Swayman, has been playoff sharp. That’s a part of penalty killing, too, that has hurt the Leafs post-season-wise over the years.
They haven’t had one of those sure thing goalies who make the PK that much stronger. Average goaltending has translated to belowaverage penalty killing.
And this isn’t a series with much open ice — it isn’t highspeed Colorado playing highspeed Winnipeg. This is more old-fashioned playoff hockey. Not a lot of room. Not many chances. The margins between winning and losing are rather thin.
A penalty kill unit that can’t stop anybody is a ticket to early elimination.
And a possible reason to begin dolling out pink slips at the end of this series.