La Niña eying return as El Niño fades
Several teleconnections around the world influence weather patterns, but one of the most prominent and talked about is the El Niñosouthern Oscillation or ENSO.
ENSO has three distinct phases – El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. How much warmer or colder than normal sea surface temperatures are in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific determines the phase.
El Niño, which is above normal sea surface temperatures, has been ongoing since last June. However, temperatures are starting to cool, and experts predict a high chance (85 per cent) of neutral conditions returning in May or June.
There’s then a 60 per cent chance of below-normal sea surface temperatures, La Niña, returning during the summertime.
ENSO is important when it comes to weather because of how it changes atmospheric circulation, which influences temperature and precipitation around the world.
La Niña is known to produce less wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, and the concern is this could coincide with above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic to produce an active hurricane season.
Pre-season forecasts from private entities and universities are already making bold predictions that we could exhaust the 21-name list. We’ll hear from officials in Canada and the U.S. next month.
Each ENSO event is different, but this could no doubt help fuel an active hurricane season. On a global scale, this will lead to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns – possibly allowing global cooling after record warmth in 2023.
Aside from hurricane season, its effects are most pronounced for us in the winter season, which could still be around at that time.
A La Niña watch is quite literally in effect, and we’ll all be watching to see how it all unfolds.