Why is the European model most accurate of them all?

We hear and talk a lot about weather models, and Harold Macpherson sent me this note about one particular model.

“Allister, I have noticed that when hurricanes are being forecast, the forecasters on TV refer (to) a European model compared to a more local model. Is one any better than the other and how could they have the technology to make such a forecast?” he asked.

“Now, to take this further, I saw on a regular forecast from New York forecasting rain that they referred to a European model for such a simple prediction. What’s the story here?”

Great questions, Harold. There are dozens of different weather models worldwide. In our country, we often hear most about global and regional models from Environment

Canada, the U.S. National Weather Service and Europe.

The European model, known as the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is an independent intergovernmental organization regarded for having a better resolution than other medium and long-range global models. That’s because it has more funding, frequent upgrades and more skilled and powerful supercomputers to process this data.

This is why when the accuracy of these models is tested, the European model often comes out on top. That’s also why it’s used commonly and considered one of the best forecasting models.

However, we need to set some of that aside and remember that just because it’s one of the most accurate models, that doesn’t mean it gets everything right. Models each have their own biases and the European model is no exception, especially when it comes to wind and sometimes temperature.

And remember that models are a guide – they’re not always 100 per cent accurate, which is why it’s important to have a forecaster analyze this data to determine how the weather will play out.

It often comes down to using a blend of models or using the one that displays the most accurate information based on the current state of the atmosphere.