Ford’s carbon chickens already coming to roost

No doubt about it: Doug Ford has a mandate to kill Ontario’s carbon-reduction plan. He campaigned on it. He got a resounding mandate from Ontarians to do it. And he started doing it even before he was sworn in.

In some ways, we have to respect Ford’s literal translation of his campaign promise, although it will be interesting to see if he honours other pledges he doesn’t necessarily feel as strongly about personally. By all accounts, he doesn’t believe climate change is real, so it follows that he wouldn’t want to support anything that suggests otherwise.

We respect Ford’s mandate to do what he’s doing, but continue to believe he and his government are dead wrong. Some early chickens are already coming home to roost that support that gloomy conclusion.

For example, the federal government says it’s reviewing $420 million worth of transfer payments to Ontario after Ford announced the “orderly winddown” of all green programs. The federal funding was part of the Trudeau government’s Low Carbon Economy Fund, set up as part of the prime minister’s national climate change framework. The fund is worth $2 billion over five years, to be spent on projects that reduce emissions, create jobs and help Canadians and companies save money across the country. Ontario no longer has any climate-change programs, so can say goodbye to those millions. And Ford can’t legitimately complain since he’s the one who pulled the trigger.

That’s only the beginning. Killing cap-and-trade means that companies that previously purchased credits worth $3 billion are holding worthless permits. Those companies are already signalling they want their money back, and are prepared to take legal action to get it. Ford can do the right thing and simply return the money he is responsible for them losing. But how will already strained government coffers cover that loss? And what about the government programs that were funded by $2 billion in annual cap-and-trade revenues? Those include renovations to hospitals, schools and social-housing buildings, provincial funding for bike paths and transit. The Ford government has so far been noncommittal about whether it will honour the funding commitments, which it should do. Again, though, where will that money come from?

Here’s a bit of political irony. Who is likely to be the big winner from Doug Ford’s wilful environmental blindness? Certainly not Ontarians, who are already beginning to feel the effects. But Justin Trudeau must be smiling. Here’s why.

Ottawa has always said it will impose carbon taxes on provinces without their own plan. Ontario is no longer in that group. So expect a carbon tax to be levied soon. Ford says he’ll join Saskatchewan to fight that. The Constitution couldn’t be clearer that the feds have the right to levy taxes in the national interest. You will be hard-pressed to find a legal expert who disagrees that Ford and Saskatchewan will lose and the tax will be levied.

But here’s the silver lining. Trudeau has always said a price on carbon is needed and Ottawa will do the job if provinces won’t. But Environment Minister Catherine McKenna has made it clear that Ottawa will redistribute the money raised back to the taxed jurisdiction, even directly to taxpayers.

So yes, Ottawa will take carbon tax revenue with one hand, but the other hand will be writing a cheque back to the same taxpayers while also investing in environmental sustainability.

The Trudeau government might be unpopular for levying the carbon tax, but the truth according to public opinion research is that most Canadians understand why such measures are necessary to combat climate change. That refund cheque should leave many Ontarians smiling.