These six will loom large on Sunday
Tom Brady hasn’t won a road playoff game in 13 years
After a wild-card round that was truly wild, with three visiting teams advancing, the divisional round of the NFL playoffs offered no surprises.
The top four seeds all advanced, setting up a pair of compelling title games. In the AFC championship, the Chiefs and Patriots will face off in a rematch of New England’s memorable 43-40 victory earlier this season. In the NFC, the Rams get another shot at the Saints in New Orleans, after having lost there in November, 45-35.
The quarterback matchups offer a nice symmetry, with one young star facing a veteran, soon-to-be Hall-of-Famer:
Patrick Mahomes versus Tom Brady, and Jared Goff versus Drew Brees.
There are lots of interesting subplots in this season’s NFL championship round. Let’s take a look at the factors in each matchup that will determine who advances to the Super Bowl:
Patriots at Chiefs
1. Tom Brady on the road is different from Tom Brady at home: This year’s AFC title runs through Kansas City, not Foxborough, Mass. Brady is 28-10 as a playoff quarterback, the greatest record ever. But he’s not used to being on the road in January. He has a 3-4 record on the road in the playoffs, and believe it or not, he hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006.
Brady is in his eighth consecutive AFC Championship Game. During that stretch, he’s played a
title game on the road only twice, losing to the Denver Broncos in the 2013 and 2016 seasons.
On the road, Brady is almost human. In home playoff games, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is an incredible 46-to-18. In those seven road playoff games, it’s 8-to-8.
2. New England’s running backs need to step up: One of the stories of the Patriots’ win over the Chargers was their success on the ground, led by rookie running back Sony Michel’s 100-yard game and three touchdowns. But equally important was their running backs’ role in the passing game, as Brady targeted them on 19-of-44 attempts. James White caught 15 passes, tying a playoff record.
That will matter again against the Chiefs, who gave up a league-high six passing touchdowns to running backs this season and are vulnerable at the linebacker position.
“You can’t get one-dimensional in these types of games,” Brady
said of the team’s balance after the win over the Chargers. “It’s too tough against too many good teams. You can get to this point and there’s very little margin of error and you’re going to have to be good in all phases. Running it, throwing it, kicking it, playing defence. Everything. We’ll have to do it again.”
3. Patrick Mahomes has been great, and his supporting cast is getting better: Mahomes followed his 50-touchdown season with a great performance against the Indianapolis Colts, completing 27-of-41 passes for
278 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass, but he did everything else, including running for a score.
Mahomes has the look of a quarterback destined to win multiple Super Bowl rings. He’s a gunslinger in the mould of Brett Favre. He’s a great running quarterback in the mould of Russell Wilson. He has the smarts of Drew Brees. And in this game, Mahomes is at home,
where he ended his team’s six-game home playoff losing streak that dated back to 1994.
The Chiefs offence also has gotten a boost from the return from injury of wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who caught six passes for 62 yards against the Colts, and the emergence of running back Damien Williams, who rushed for 129 yards on 25 carries.
Rams at Saints
4. It all starts up front — especially for L.A.: Saints coach Sean Payton doesn’t get enough credit for regularly putting together great offensive lines, and they are loaded again this year, with Pro Bowlers Max Unger and Terron Armstead and Pro Bowl alternate guards Larry Warford and Andrus Peat.
But the Rams have also been great up front this season, and the blocking of their offensive line was one of the keys to their 30-22 win over Dallas on Saturday. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth admitted after the victory that the line didn’t perform well in the playoffs last year.
“I thought last year we didn’t execute,” Whitworth said. “It was probably our worst game we played all season from the execution standpoint. This year that was in Chicago. I think in some ways it’s benefited us to get that game out of the way.”
5. Drew Brees is really hard to beat at home: The soon-to-be 40-year-old quarterback is 6-0 at home in the playoffs for New Orleans, having thrown 14 touchdowns to two interceptions and never posted a passer rating below 96.2. That’s why it wasn’t surprising to see Brees rally the Saints after their slow start versus Philadelphia.
Rams coach Sean McVay says his team has learned a lot since that November loss in New Orleans, but no matter what adjustments they make, beating Brees in the Superdome is no easy task.
6. The Eli Apple trade will have an impact: The midseason trade for the struggling former first-round cornerback of the Giants has flown under the radar a bit, but it has had a big impact on the Saints’ pass coverage. Apple’s ability to play man coverage has allowed the New Orleans defence to play less zone, and that will matter against the Rams.
Down the stretch, most teams have tried to double cover one of the Rams’ top two receivers — either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods — and also commit an extra defender to stopping running back Todd Gurley. New Orleans has a true shutdown corner in second-year pro Marshon Lattimore, who was one of the stars of Sunday’s win for his shadow coverage of Alshon Jeffery. The Saints are able to use him in that role due to the presence of Apple.