Canadians must guard their economic revival
If you’re pining for a few shreds of positive news to come out of the deeply depressing COVID-19 crisis, we have some today.
After a long, government-induced coma, the Canadian economy is starting to reawaken. The signs of it coming back to life are clear as governments across the land slowly, meticulously and in stages end their lockdowns. And that development is at least worth a smile.
The hole we’re trying to dig ourselves out of is enormous. Statistics Canada reported Friday that the nation’s economy in the first quarter of this year was the weakest it’s been since 2009.
But we are on the way up, and we’ll continue to move in this direction with this proviso: We must all keep adhering to the unprecedented but entirely necessary safety rules that have transformed, complicated and hampered daily life in Canada.
If we don’t, thousands of more Canadians could become sick and die in a second wave of COVID-19. And as if that wouldn’t be terrible enough, we could see the nation’s economy again floored by the pandemic.
The signs of new economic activity should steel our resolve to prevent this from happening. There’s a swagger out on the streets that’s been absent since mid-March. New job openings are being posted. More retail outlets are opening up again. More factories are back in production.
On the demand side of the economy, things are brighter, too. Canada’s six largest banks are reporting more consumer spending and more people taking out loans.
While some people may denounce these trends as a return to wasteful, mindless consumption, they should consider the alternative — and the devastating impact COVID-19 has had on the hopes and financial security of millions of Canadians.
The Canadian economy shed three million jobs in March and April because so many workplaces were forced to shut down to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. And as workers were laid off or faced reduced hours, they cut spending, leading to more business closures and more layoffs. It became a vicious cycle. By the end of April, the nation’s unemployment rate had soared to 13 per cent, the second highest level on record. Had Statistics Canada’s labour force survey included the 1.1 million people who had stopped looking for work, mainly because of COVID-19, the real unemployment rate would have hit 17.8 per cent.
The fact that one third of the country’s labour force was either unemployed or working reduced hours prompted emergency federal relief measures that will saddle the country with an estimated $105 billion in new debt. Other measures to fight the pandemic are expected to lift this year’s federal deficit north of $252 billion. Despite these efforts, the lingering pandemic pain will be real. Many people will still lose their homes, their businesses and their hopes.
So let us all pause for a moment and at least acknowledge the real economic progress that has been made. We’re not out of the pandemic tunnel. We’re moving toward the light. The more Canadians can say goodbye to self-isolation and return to a workplace, favourite store, campground or golf course, the more we’ll be putting the pandemic behind us.
But as that happens, we’ll also be coming into closer contact with increasing numbers of people, including some who may have been exposed to the virus. The need to physical-distance from others and wear a face mask when that’s impossible remains. The coming weeks will be crucial. But we hold our future in our hands — which will still require regular washing.