Our grocers’ demographic party may be ending

If your job is to feed people, the coming population implosion presents a challenge

Canada’s population grew by more than one million for the first time in its history in 2022. The population in Prince Edward Island grew the most, with a jump of 4.3 per cent in only one year, followed by Alberta at 3.7 per cent, and Nova Scotia in third place with a jump of 3.5 per cent. Canada’s population could reach 40 million by June of this year. As of last fall, the world’s population has already reached eight billion.

Demographic growth will help grocers and the rest of the food supply chain, with food expenditures increasing by $3.6 billion. This is because there are over one million more mouths to feed and the consumer needs to spend an average of $3,500 to eat this year. Good news for the industry, but the party won’t last.

For the longest time, demographic experts have been concerned about the planet’s overpopulation. Most of them are now more concerned about a declining population. Some are even talking about a demographic implosion, suggesting that the Earth will never reach nine billion inhabitants. In fact, some experts predict that the earth’s population could start declining in less than 20 years. Canada’s population could peak within that time frame as well. If your job is to feed people, this type of decline presents a challenge.

In most areas of the world, including Canada, people are having fewer children. About 75 per cent of the world has a birth rate below replacement levels. Canada is relying heavily on immigration to support its demographic ambitions, but we will reach a point when that option is no longer there, either. Immigration rules are being tightened across the Western World. The recent closure of Roxham Road in Quebec is one of many examples.

Despite generous social programs to support families, many expect birth or replacement rates to continue declining. There isn’t any dominant factor to explain this trend. Citizens everywhere are just having fewer children for numerous reasons.

What’s more, the demographic gap between the young and the not-soyoung is growing. The number of people between the ages of 25 and 64 – those who significantly contribute to our economy – will continue to shrink.

Therefore, the size of our population won’t be the main challenge for our food industry. The age of the population, however, should be the focus. The food industry needs to embrace the massive social change that is about to hit the world.

Not having children is not necessarily a problem,

Agriculture and other farm organizations, has been actively advocating for the federal government to exempt farmers from having to file an Underused Housing Tax return.

We’ve been raising awareness and meeting with elected officials and government staff to explain the issue of multiple dwellings in rural areas when farmers buy farmland, and the unintended consequences this legislation now has for the farming community.

Late last month, the federal government announced it is delaying any fees or penalties until October 31, giving affected property owners an extra six months to file their first return under the new act. Although this is a welcome reprieve to give us more time to make sense of the legislation, it doesn’t address the greater long-term impact and burden it places on farm businesses.

Farmers are caught in the middle of governments trying to find housing solutions and the unique realities of farm businesses who unintentionally find themselves with multiple dwellings through the purchase of additional farmland.

OFA and our partner organizations will continue to advocate strongly for a filing exemption for farmers, but while we do, we encourage all farmers to make sure they file their Underused Housing Tax return in order to avoid the substantial penalties, and to contact their accountants with any questions.