Another case of politics as usual in Thailand?

There have been occasional violent episodes in Thai politics and one recent massacre (2010), but the struggle for a genuine democracy has usually been relatively restrained. Maybe that is why it has lasted so long.

In fact, the tug-of-war between the army, the monarchy and the conservative middle class on one side, and the peasants, the students and one billionaire’s family on the other, has acquired a ritual quality. The election later this month (May 14) will mark the third time Thailand has gone around the full range of political possibilities since the turn of the century.

A typical trip round the circuit starts with an election that brings some member of the Shinawatra family to power as prime minister. Despite their great wealth, the Shinawatras are on the left politically, and they begin to implement a program of subsidies to poor farmers, a national healthcare system and other expensive reforms.

Most middle-class taxpayers strongly resist any government spending that isn’t on them, and start protesting against it in the streets of Bangkok.

Shinawatra supporters organize counter-demonstrations, and it turns into a struggle in the streets. Sometimes the opposing sides even wear different-coloured shirts (red for Shinawatra, yellow against) to show their loyalties.

The turmoil in the streets gives the army, the bureaucracy and the monarchy a pretext to shut down the elected government by a military coup that ‘restores order.’ The courts obediently ratify the army’s actions and jail or ban the opposition’s leaders, but now the shoe is on the other foot.

As the military junta settles into power, its legitimacy is challenged by renewed demonstrations by students, the urban poor and farmers. Within a few years the junta leader tries to regularize his position by running for office as a ‘civilian’ under a new constitution written by the military. (New Thai constitutions last an average of four years.)

Sometimes the newly civilianized great leader – the current incumbent is former

General Prayuth Chan-ocha – manages to ‘win’ the first rigged election, but by the second election after a coup one of the Shinawatras is invariably back in office.

First time around, in 2001, the new prime minister was the paterfamilias of the clan, Thaksin Shinawatra. He made his fortune in telecommunications but stayed loyal to his humble origins. His social welfare policies were condemned by angry conservatives as ‘bribes’ to the poor. He was removed by the military in 2006 and went into exile.

Second time, in 2011, it was his youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who became prime minister. She pursued the same populist policies and was removed from office and replaced by General Chan-ocha in 2014. She is also now in exile, but the pattern continues.

Chan-ocha made the usual transition from general to fake civilian prime minister, and his new constitution created a ‘Senate’ whose 250 members are all appointed by the military. That enabled him to ‘win’ an election in 2019 even though he lost badly in the vote by the 500 elected members of the