A marathon, not a sprint

The latest poll, conducted by a reputable firm and commissioned by a group you admire, has concluded exactly what you want it to. Your team is neck-and-neck for the lead and picking up momentum.

It might feel that way with so many polls showing such a tight federal election race. But it’s still early in the campaign and pollsters can get it wrong (ask Adrian Dix). Riding-level predictions rarely have enough data to create an accurate picture of voters’ intentions.

Politicians at the bottom of the heap like to say the only poll that matters is the one on election day, and they’re right.

In a country where national turnout hasn’t been above 70 per cent since 1988, the game is won and lost by getting the lazy “likely” voters out when it counts. With our history of scandal, both recent and in days of yore, people are becoming disaffected. Attack ads are only dumping more water on political engagement.

But a tight race, or the perception of one, is certainly good for democracy, as it will motivate people to get into a ballot booth.

If the race stays this tight closer to election day, expect the issues of strategic voting, a minority government and — cue the dramatic music — coalitions to dominate the discourse.

Nothing could be more exciting than a photo finish, but this race is a marathon, not a sprint. We hope the parties, the pollsters and the press don’t lose steam before Oct. 19.

North Shore News