Poll: NDP leads in Esquimalt, Cowichan Valley a toss-up

Poll commissioned by Times Colonist reveal voter intentions

The NDP is leading in Esquimalt-Metchosin, but is virtually neckand-neck with the Liberals in the Cowichan Valley as they try to hold two seats vacated by retiring MLAs in the provincial election, a new poll commissioned by the Times Colonist shows.

The Liberals had hoped to grab both NDP strongholds after the departure of Maurine Karagianis from the Esquimalt riding and Bill Routley from Cowichan Valley.

But NDP candidate Mitzi Dean looks to have a comfortable eight-percentage-point lead over Liberal candidate and Esquimalt Mayor Barb Desjardins with just two days until the general vote on Tuesday.

Andy MacKinnon of the B.C. Green Party is 12 points back, according to the telephone survey by Oraclepoll Research of Toronto.

The pollsters interviewed 300 voting-age people in the riding between Tuesday and Friday.

They found: • 40 per cent of decided voters back Dean • 32 per cent back Desjardins • 28 per cent back MacKinnon

Thirteen per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

Karagianis won the old Esquimalt-Royal Roads riding in 2013 with 48 per cent of the vote. The Liberal candidate captured 29 per cent.

Oraclepoll president Paul Seccaspina said it appears unlikely the seat will change hands this time. “It looks like a safe riding for the NDP,” he said.

It’s more of a toss-up in Cowichan Valley, where Routley pulled 40 per cent of the vote in 2013, compared with nearly 35 per cent for Liberal candidate Steve Housser.

With Routley gone, Housser has a narrow two-percentagepoint lead this time over NDP candidate Lori Iannidinardo and 13 points over Sonia Furstenau of the B.C. Green Party, the poll shows. It found: • 37 per cent of decided voters back Housser • 35 per cent back Iannidinardo • 24 per cent back Furstenau

Fifteen per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

The Liberals and NDP are essentially tied in Cowichan Valley, Seccaspina said.

“If the Greens can pull even more NDP support away, the Liberals could pull that one out … depending on the level of voters showing up,” he said.

“It’s still a close race. It could go either way.”

The Cowichan Valley poll also questioned 300 voting-age residents.

Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Oraclepoll conducted the survey by telephone — reaching private numbers as well as cellphones-only households — and using person-to-person interviewing, the company said.

VERNON — British Columbia’s New Democrats took their campaign to the Liberal heartland in the province’s Okanagan on Saturday, targeting three ridings held by Liberal backbenchers.

NDP Leader John Horgan bought a carton of apple juice from a local judo club that was raising funds outside a coffee shop in Vernon and inspected a bear-proof steel cage built to protect a beehive operation at an apple orchard in Summerland.

At a packed Penticton restaurant, people stood in the doorway and on an outside patio to hear him speak.

“This is the most important election in our lifetime,” Horgan said. “We can’t risk another four years of Christy Clark. Take a look at what we’re offering.”

In Vernon, Horgan told supporters he wants to meet as many voters as possible in the days before Tuesday’s election.

Liberal Leader Christy Clark was in Cache Creek to examine flood damage. She also addressed the ongoing trade dispute with the United States over duties on softwood lumber and her request for the federal government to ban the shipment of thermal coal through the province, which would be a blow to the industry in the U.S.

If Ottawa doesn’t act, Clark has also threatened to act on her own with a tax on thermal coal after the U.S. imposed duties of up to 24 per cent on Canadian lumber imports.

U.S. Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross issued a statement on Saturday saying “threats of retaliatory action are inappropriate and will not influence any final determinations.”

Clark stood up for the proposed levy, saying she’s just trying to protect B.C. jobs from the protectionist policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“They say: ‘We don’t want your lumber,’ and they’re upset we don’t want to ship their coal? Come on,” she said.

Later in Port Moody, Clark and her son, Hamish, served ice cream and chatted with people at a campaign event.

In the campaign’s final days, Horgan has been making a pitch to undecided and prospective Green voters to support the NDP in an effort to defeat the Liberals.

Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, president of the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs, said he is supporting Horgan.

“I believe this election is about change,” he said outside the restaurant in Penticton. “Sixteen years of B.C. Liberals’ legislation and policies is long enough.”

Green Leader Andrew Weaver also focused on the flooding and mudslides in the Interior.

“As rain storms continue to wreak havoc on areas of the interior with flooding and mudslides, my thoughts continue to be with all those affected,” he said in a statement. “I am deeply concerned for the safety of British Columbians in these areas.”