Nuclear bluster, and angst, hit home
Capital is 100 km from U.S. base, home to missiles
Given the angry bluster between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jongun, it can be easy to get nervous in Victoria.
After all, Victoria is about 100 kilometres — roughly the same distance that is between the city and Nanaimo — from the Kitsap U.S. Naval Base in Washington, home to several ballistic missile submarines, each one capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project for the Federation of American Scientists, said in an interview that Kitsap is home to eight submarines, one of which is usually in dry-dock for refit and refuel at any time. The federation works to reduce the spread and number of nuclear weapons, prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism, promote high standards for nuclear energy’s safety and security.
Kristensen, who is based in Washington, D.C., said each submarine can carry up to 20 missiles, and each missile can carry up to eight nuclear warheads. Simple arithmetic suggests Kitsap could be housing 1,280 nuclear warheads either on subs or in storage. But Kristensen and other American peace activists say the base’s northern neighbours shouldn’t worry — at least not any more than citizens elsewhere in the world.
“No one should be all that scared about an attack out of the blue from North Korea,” said Tom Collina, policy director with the Ploughshares Fund, which aims to reduce and eventually eliminate the dangers posed by nuclear weapons. “It doesn’t make any sense and it would suicidal for them.
“They don’t even have the missile accuracy to target something like a nuclear warhead depot.”
Both he and Kristensen say the biggest danger lies not in a surprise attack, but with some miscalculation or mistake that leads to a reaction that ultimately cascades into a nuclear exchange.
“The danger is that we have these two inexperienced, bombastic leaders that might rattle their swords and ramp up their threats so we stumble into nuclear war,” Collina said.
Kristensen echoed his assessment. “It’s not likely that early one morning out of the west comes this missile. It’s more likely something gets triggered by a series of escalating acts on both sides,” he said.
“Once things get hot and tense and you get into the initial shooting phase, misunderstandings about what is really going on are very likely. You can easily imagine an overreaction to a misunderstanding that very quickly goes nuclear.”
For their part, Canadian officials don’t seem to be reacting in any significant way at the moment. Those at Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt and provincial emergency officials both deferred to Public Safety Canada in Ottawa.
The federal agency’s website lists a number of documents and facilities including a Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan and a Government Operations Centre that monitors conditions at home and around the world every minute of every day.
“We monitor all potential threats and have robust measures in place to address them,” wrote Jean-Philippe Levert, Public Safety Canada spokesman, in an email. The U.S. Navy, in a statement, said: “We always maintain a high state of readiness and have the capabilities to counter any threats, including those from North Korea.”