Next week will tell the LNG tale
For seven years they’ve been hooting in derision, vehemently objecting, voting against and generally shooting down government moves to make liquefied natural gas plants take shape in B.C.
But next week, the NDP will be only too happy to celebrate a monumental announcement — an LNG plant is about to take shape in B.C.
Not only that, it’s getting the green light partly because of refinements the NDP government made to the B.C. Liberals’ initial offer, most of which backtracked on the NDP’s criticisms while in opposition.
LNG Canada’s final investment decision in favour of a $40-billion project near Kitimat is widely expected to be made next week. Premier John Horgan will shed all memories of his years spent heckling the Liberals over the project when he welcomes billions in offshore investment.
And imagine the mood in the B.C. Liberal caucus when the word drops. It’s like giving a baby up for adoption — to neighbours who have been jeering about the kid’s chances.
There will be so much emotional baggage around the announcement on both sides of the legislature, they’re going to need counsellors on hand.
The NDP government will have an easier time. Party members had a sworn duty to oppose everything government does. So the long track record of objecting to the Liberals’ LNG approach can be read as just them doing their job while they were in opposition. And now that they’re in power and dealing with unease about their attitude to industry and development, turning their backs on this whale of an investment was never an option.
The enormity of the project will make the petty politics fade into the distance. So will the timing, since LNG Canada’s green light might be seen as an end to the stagnant period where similar mammoth projects were postponed or cancelled because of a price slump.
The go-ahead might break the ice for other proponents who have been dithering.
But the politics is still interesting because the NDP’s enthusiastic new stance on LNG could bend the confidence agreement with the three-person Green caucus to the snapping point.
Green Leader Andrew Weaver has been consistently opposed to LNG throughout. He has also assured everyone it’s never going to happen.
That looks to be wrong, based on the hints about next week’s decision. And it will leave him with a big decision. He set himself up for the call this year. After the NDP reset the table for the industry, he wrote directly to LNG Canada to warn the firm that if the tax breaks went through, his caucus would no longer have confidence in the government.
Voiding the confidence and supply agreement wouldn’t collapse the government instantly. Most of the government’s LNG framework is already in place. The Liberals will back whatever remains to be done, so three opposing Green votes won’t mean much.
But if the Greens formally void the agreement, proceedings in the legislature, at least this fall, would proceed case-by-case, with no certainty about voting outcomes. It’s hard to picture a government lasting the full term.
The other option for the Greens is to check the climatechange plan and the work on lowering LNG emissions and pronounce them satisfactory enough that cancelling the confidence deal — the nuclear option — isn’t necessary.
All Horgan’s previous rhetoric on LNG is fading into the distance. He dwelled on the need to maximize benefits to B.C, then rejigged the sales tax to LNG Canada’s benefit, removed the LNG income tax and cut the price of electricity.
He dwelled on the significant emissions issue, then went ahead and courted the industry anyway, saying it would fit with the new climate-change plan.
The overriding concern was explained by the premier himself when he announced the better deal back in March.
“No premier or government can dismiss this kind of critical economic opportunity for the people of British Columbia.”
So Liberal groundwork and NDP finishing touches will likely produce a major new industry. The last thing on the to-do list is to bring the Green caucus grudgingly on side, or stare them down.