What, exactly, is a variant of concern?

A variant that appears to be wreaking havoc in India has been detected in Canada but experts say it’s too early to know how concerning this new version of the COVID-19 virus is.

The variant — named B.1.617 — has so far been classified as a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization, rather than a “variant of concern,” the term attached to the variants first detected in the United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa.

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist with the University of Ottawa, says a variant of interest is one that is “suspected” to either be more contagious than the initial strain, cause more severe disease or escape the protection offered by vaccines.

A variant of interest can become a variant of concern if more evidence emerges that it does one or more of those things, he added. Here’s what we know about the new variant:

HOW TRANSMISSIBLE IS IT?

India is dealing with massive surges in COVID-19 activity — there were 300,000 new cases reported Wednesday with 2,000 deaths linked to the virus — but the Indian government has not confirmed the new variant is fuelling the current wave.

Deonandan said the variant appears to be responsible for about 60 per cent of cases in India’s most populated region, which would suggest a higher transmissibility.

He said it’s “probably around 20 to 30 per cent” more contagious, but added that experts still don’t know if the variant causes more severe disease.

WILL CURRENT VACCINES WORK AGAINST THE NEW VARIANT?

The variant has a double mutation on the spike protein gene, which our current COVID19 vaccines target. But experts say there’s no evidence right now that the approved vaccines won’t work against it.

Deonandan said the variant may diminish vaccine efficacy, “at least a little bit,” because that’s what we’ve seen with the variants of concern so far.

But, he added, that doesn’t mean efficacy will drop from 95 per cent to zero, for example.

Deonandan likened the coronavirus’s spike protein to the licence plate on a car, with vaccines giving our cells that plate number so they know to keep it out when they see it.

“But if the licence plate has changed, will the cell still recognize the car?” he said. “So the question is: Has an entire digit on the plate changed, or is it just a smudge on the corner?”

Deonandan added that the mRNA vaccines seem to be adept at catching different versions of the virus by targeting many aspects of the spike protein. “So, they may say: ‘Look out for all licence plates beginning with the letter B,’ rather than this specific licence plate,” he said. WHERE HAS THE VARIANT APPEARED IN CANADA?

The B.C. Ministry of Health said Thursday there had been 39 cases of the B.1.617 lineage in the province on April 4, before it was identified as a variant of interest. Quebec confirmed Wednesday what’s believed to be the province’s first case of the new variant, causing Premier Francois Legault to urge the federal government to tighten restrictions on air travel.

CAN WE CALL THE VARIANT A “DOUBLE MUTANT?”

While some have dubbed the variant a “double mutant,” Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious disease expert with McMaster University, said that’s a misnomer that conjures up false images of a super virus.

Having two mutations on the spike protein doesn’t necessarily mean the variant is more dangerous than one that has a single mutation on that gene, Chagla added.

“That’s a terrible term,” he said of the double-mutant label. “When you see double mutations as compared to single mutations people get freaked out, but in reality many of these are combinations of mutations.”