Omicron cases will overwhelm B.C. hospitals in January, models show

The record rise in COVID-19 cases due to the Omicron variant will put extreme demand on B.C. hospitals in January, according to the latest predictions from an independent modelling group.

The B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group is made up of 13 experts in infectious disease, mathematics and data, many from the province’s universities, including University of Victoria, Simon Fraser University and University of B.C.

Their latest analysis, which hasn’t been peer reviewed, notes the Vancouver Coastal Health and Fraser Health regions have experienced the greatest surge in cases in recent weeks. And it’s expected to get worse.

“Cases are expected to exceed 1 in 1,000 in the coming weeks if transmission is not substantially reduced,” said the report.

On Thursday, cases surged to 2,046 across B.C., the highest one-day total since the beginning of the pandemic.

The modelling group said the growth rate of Omicron cases is estimated to be between 23 and 29 per cent per day.

At that rate of transmission, cases would double roughly every three days.

More data is needed to estimate how Omicron is growing in the province’s Northern Health, Interior Health or Island Health regions, the report said.

Working with limited data, some early reports around the world have indicated the Omicron variant provokes fewer severe health outcomes than the Delta variant. But the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group said that severity remains uncertain.

They model three scenarios looking at how Omicron will impact the health-care system: one if Omicron is 30 per cent as severe as Delta, another if it’s 50 per cent as severe, and in a third scenario, where there’s no difference in health outcomes between Delta and Omicron.

In all cases, hospital capacity is overwhelmed by January, climbing from 187 hospitalizations on Dec. 22 to between 600 and well over 1,600 admissions.

Beyond January, the model starts to fall apart. That’s because it’s hard to predict the effects of new public health measures and the way the public behaves in the face of the current Omicron wave.

Public health measures have worked in the past, but they’ve never been tested against such a virulent strain of the SAR-CoV-2 virus. Another big unknown is how much of B.C.’s population had immunity to Omicron when it arrived, and how the immunity of those who have recovered from the variant will affect transmission.

The researchers said that tracking the rise of the Omicron variant will be challenged by a data blackout over the holidays. The increasing popularity of self-administered rapid antigen testing — 11 million of which have been requested by the B.C. government — will make logging cases difficult, the report said.

Whatever the case, the models agree on one thing, “B.C. is facing an Omicron tidal wave.”

“Regardless of the value of the unknown parameters, we expect [the] number of people in hospital to exceed that previously seen in the pandemic by mid-January,” the researchers said.

What’s needed, the scientists said, is to buy more time for booster vaccinations, which according to preliminary data, have proven to reduce severe Omicron infection. Hypothetically, if every vaccinated British Columbian received a booster, the doubling time for Omicron cases increases to 6.6 days.

On Tuesday, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the province is accelerating its booster rollout, but not until the new year.