Virus models point to overwhelmed ICU units

COVID-19 hospitalizations in B.C. are projected to peak four to 10 times higher than the previous record during the pandemic, according to an independent modelling group.

More COVID-19 hospitalizations will inevitably lead to more people in intensive care units, putting what is expected to be a new level of pressure on hospitals in the province, the B.C. COVID-19 Independent Modelling Group says.

“The models continue to predict that demand on hospitals will be extreme through the coming month, reaching higher levels than we’ve seen so far,” University of British Columbia professor Eric Cytrynbaum said in a video explaining the group’s latest findings.

In one of the group’s models, University of Victoria researcher Dean Karlen ran scenarios looking at the effectiveness of publichealth measures on transmission. All but one led to more than 1,000 people in ICUs.

In what Cytrynbaum said is the most likely scenario, more than 2,000 patients would land in B.C.’s ICUs over the coming weeks, approaching triple the capacity of the province’s hospitals. On Tuesday, about 90 per cent of B.C.’s 510 base criticalcare beds were occupied.

While B.C. hospitals have another 218 surge-capacity ICU beds, that is nowhere near what would be required should the modelling group’s projections come true.

Boosters won’t be enough to avoid the coming surge, either, according to another model from UBC researcher Sally Otto. If everyone over 60 received a booster dose before they were exposed to Omicron, it would help reduce the peak number of infections, but wouldn’t prevent a hospital surge, her model found.

Depending on how publichealth measures affect transmission, peak hospitalizations are expected in late January to early February.

To understand how Omicron could affect hospitals in B.C., the modelling group looked at studies in three other jurisdictions — South Africa, the United Kingdom and Ontario — already coping with an influx of new patients.

The first, a study published last week in The Lancet looking at hospitalizations of Omicron cases in South Africa, found hospitalizations dropped from 16.6 per cent of cases in previous waves to 4.9 per cent for Omicron. Those admitted with Omicron were found to be 73 per cent less likely to have severe outcomes and were released on average after four days instead of seven to eight.

A U.K. study found 35 per cent fewer hospitalizations due to Omicron compared with the Delta variant. However, whether a patient was vaccinated made a big difference. Doublevaccinated patients were found to be 76 per cent less likely to end up in hospital, whereas for unvaccinated cases, the likelihood dropped to 26 per cent.

In Ontario, a study released before Christmas found a 54 per cent lower risk of being hospitalized with Omicron than with Delta.

“That’s the good news. The bad news comes in the transmissibility,” said Cytrynbaum. “Omicron is spreading more.”