B.C.’s low snowpack sparks drought and wildfire concerns
B.C. experienced its lowest snowpack since 1970 this winter, with the Island receiving just 49 per cent of normal snow levels.
The province released its latest Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin Wednesday measuring snowpack up until April 1, when 95 per cent of seasonal snowpack is typically accumulated, according to the report. Across the province, the snowpack is 63 per cent of normal.
The low snowpack combined with warm weather forecasts create “significantly elevated” drought hazards for the coming spring and summer, the report says.
The low snowpack does not guarantee the province will experience a drought this summer. Other factors, such as the rate of snow melt, spring and summer temperatures, and precipitation trends, will also play a role in the likelihood of drought, said Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the River Forecast Centre.
In 2019, the last year when the year’s snowpack was also below normal, the province expected an extreme drought season, Boyd said. “Very late in June, the rains arrived and we had a very cold and wet summer season and unfortunately significant flooding in areas like the Chilcotin,” he said.
By contrast, in 2022, when the provincial average snowpack was 165 per cent of normal, there were initially no concerns about drought. But in early July, rain essentially stopped until October, bringing drought conditions, he said.
“So it’s still just a little bit too early to say definitively that we will for sure have a major drought this year,” Boyd said.
Drought and wildfire typically go hand-in-hand, Boyd said, so the province is looking at a potentially difficult fire season.
“Wildfire of course is so unique, because it really depends on lightning strikes or sometimes, unfortunately, human-caused fires, and every location is a little bit more unique,” he said.
The Island’s snowpack is one of the lowest in the province, but it doesn’t come close to the record low in 2015, when snowpack was just 15 per cent of normal.
At 49 per cent of normal, the Island’s snowpack is significantly lower than last year at this time, when it was 76 per cent of normal. It’s a strong indication the Island is in for another summer of drought, said Coree Tull, co-chair of the B.C. Watershed Security Coalition.
Last summer saw ranchers running out of hay, Tofino on the brink of running out of drinking water, First Nations trucking in drinking water and a mass fish die-off on the Cowichan River,
Tull said. The province needs to look at ways to increase water supply by better capturing precipitation and runoff and reducing water demand, she said. At the local level, communities need to develop plans to share limited water sources between residential users, agriculture, industry and fish, Tull said.
“This is really important to ensure that communities are ready with plans around how water can be shared for the best interest of their community, and its ecosystem and their watersheds,” she said.
Nathan Cullen, minister of water, land and resource stewardship, called the snowpack update “concerning news” following last summer’s drought conditions.
“It fuelled the worst wildfire season ever, harmed fish and wildlife, and affected farmers, ranchers, First Nations and industry,” he said in a statement.
The province is investing $100 million in a new watershed security fund to protect B.C.’s water. It is also hosting workshops around B.C. to help farmers prepare for drought and connect with financial support.
Cullen said all British Columbians can help to conserve water through small actions, such as taking shorter showers, watering lawns sparingly or not at all, and following local water restrictions.
Greater Victoria’s Sooke reservoir is filled by rainfall and is only minimally impacted by snowpack, said CRD spokesman Andy Orr. The reservoir is full, and Greater Victoria residents are unlikely to face anything beyond Stage 1 water conservation restrictions, he said. Stage 1 limits lawn watering to twice per week and watering trees, shrubs and vegetables during specific hours in the morning or evening.
OTTAWA — Persistent drought and months of above-average temperatures have escalated the risk of another record-breaking wildfire season, federal ministers said Wednesday as they warned about the urgent need to address climate change.
“We can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner, end later and potentially be more explosive,” Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan said at a news conference.
The 2023 fire season was Canada’s worst on record, with more than 6,600 fires burning more than 15 million hectares, an area almost twice the size of Lake Superior. It forced more than 230,000 people from their homes — including the entire city of Yellowknife — and created unprecedented smoke conditions across much of the country and into the United States.
Eight firefighters died battling the blazes and Canada expects to spend more than $750 million in disaster assistance alone. That does not include the billions of dollars spent fighting the fires in the first place. A briefing document forecasting the fire risk for this spring shows conditions are already ripe for an early and above-normal fire risk from Quebec all the way to British Columbia in both April and May.
The forecast is based on having had a warmer-than-normal winter with minimal snow and widespread drought, particularly in the Prairies. There is also a high probability for abovenormal temperatures in April, May and June. Western Canada, eastern Ontario and western Quebec are currently facing the highest risk.
The briefing includes a caveat that forecasting precipitation levels is not very reliable so the warnings are based on current conditions, and could change if more rain falls this spring than is currently expected.
The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre lists 65 fires already burning, mainly in B.C., Alberta and the Northwest Territories. More than half are fires that started in 2023, smouldered underground throughout the winter and have since reemerged. Most of the fires burning are under control.
Human activity is typically the main fire risk factor in the spring, said Michael Norton, the director general of the Northern Forestry Centre at Natural Resources Canada.
Preventing fires from starting in the first place is critical, and in the spring most fires are human-caused, including through careless burning, campfires, fireworks, and the heat from offroad vehicles igniting grass or other debris on the ground.
Lightning becomes a primary source of wildfires during the summer, once thunderstorms become more common.
About 70 per cent of the fires between January and May 2023 were started by humans, compared with fewer than 20 per cent of the fires that started in June, July and August.
The low level of snow in most of Canada is among the key reasons for the higher risks this spring. British Columbia’s snowpack for April is at a record low 67 per cent, said Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the B.C. River Forecast Centre.
“Typically speaking, drought and wildfire go hand in hand, so it’s not setting up to be a great season,” Boyd said. “But it still just depends on what the weather conditions are. If we have last year’s spring weather conditions this year, it will be worse.”
Sajjan said Canada and the provinces and territories have been working for months to prepare for a bad fire season this year and will be ready.
That includes more equipment and more trained firefighters, said Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson. Ottawa now has agreements with 11 of the 13 provinces and territories to deliver $256 million in firefighting equipment, including trucks, drones and planes.
Wilkinson said the 2022 promise to train 1,000 firefighters over five years may end up producing that many before the end of 2024. Some of that training includes urban firefighters, who need additional training to handle wildfires as they increasingly bear down on cities and towns.