Bird flu ‘reality check’ needed: Health minister

Says prediction of flu toll out of line Preparation will lessen the impact

OTTAWA— Claims that an avian flu pandemic could kill up to 1.6 million Canadians are out of line, says Carolyn Bennett, the minister of state for public health

Fears in Canada have flared recently as the first cases of avian flu cropped up in Europe amid predictions of high death tolls and the possible decimation of the Canadian economy.

Bennett is attempting to temper them with a reality check.

“ I think what we’ve seen is a fear of a new risk, even though in Canada we’ve had a pandemic planning committee for years,” Bennett said in an interview with the Toronto Star. “ It’s a matter of making sure that concerns are acted upon, such that people can get on with their lives and know that everything that can be done is being done.” Though the virus originated in Asia, migratory birds are thought to have carried it to Eastern Europe where, in the last week, the virus has been discovered, or suspected, in Turkey, Romania and Greece. The H5N1 avian influenza virus affects birds, and only in the rarest of cases, humans. Worldwide, the World Health Association has reported 117 humans affected by avian influenza, 60 of whom have died, all of them in Asia. But the worry is that H5N1 will

mutate, becoming a virus that humans will easily catch from birds or each other. What nobody knows is if or when that mutation will happen or when avian flu will arrive in North America.

“ It was a little bit easier preparing for Y2K because there was a specific date,” says Bennett, who likens an avian flu pandemic to an earthquake that could hit at anytime.

“ We’re overdue for a pandemic, but are we looking at a mild one, a moderate one or a severe one?” she said. “ And I think that the issues now are how do you mitigate ( the effects) and do we have everything in place to make sure that number is as small as it can be. That’s our job” Next week, Bennett and federal Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh will play host to some 30 international health ministers and World Health Association officials to discuss a co- ordinated global response to the pandemic. And in mid-November, the pair of ministers will host a roundtable for Canadian business leaders to discuss ways to mitigate any damage to the Canadian economy, which recent reports have suggested could be potentially massive.

Earlier this week, the Conference Board of Canada reported that an avian flu pandemic could shut down Canadian manufacturing for more than a year. However, the Conference Board’s prediction that 1.6 million Canadians could die in a pandemic dwarfs any previous estimated death tolls. The Public Health Agency of Canada has estimated that 11,000 to 58,000 might die if a “ moderately severe” pandemic struck here. The Conference Board’s estimates for Canada are based on the predicted worldwide death toll of 180 million to 360 million, pro- rated for Canada’s population.

“ You can’t just divide by 10. From us having universal flu shot access and everything else we’ve got here,” Bennett said. “ Certainly the numbers we’ve looked at, even in terms of people getting the disease, was 10 to 35 per cent ( of Canadians) could get the flu.” But when a large portion of those who fall ill get better and are immune to the virus, Bennett says, they may become very valuable.

“ Because they’ve already had it, they don’t even need a shot. The early survivors become this workforce that can really help you,” she said.

What’s important now, Bennett said, is that the same kind of fear that shut down Toronto’s economy during the SARS crisis does not spin out of control over a potential avian flu pandemic

“ With 44 ( SARS) deaths, the Toronto economy went to its knees because of fear,” she said. “ And part of that was that we didn’t know at the beginning what the mode of transmission or the incubation, or any of those things.”

“ We have to put this in context. What are we doing everyday to keep that number as low as possible?”