Speech may tip Layton’s plans

Will respond to health-care plans NDP reaction key to Liberals’ fate

OTTAWA— Jack Layton is keeping everyone in suspense — and the spotlight on him — as he decides whether to help bring down the Liberals.

That suspense should end this afternoon when Layton is expected to set out, during a speech to Toronto’s Empire Club, how the NDP will react to the government’s proposed plan to prevent the growth of privately funded health care.

“ You can expect to have a far clearer idea of where the NDP’s going,” party strategist Jamey Health said yesterday. Many believe the NDP’s support for the minority Liberal government hinges on what they think of the anti- privatization measures the government is prepared to take. When Layton met with Martin two weeks ago he made it clear the Liberals must take action against private health care if they are to count on the NDP’s continued support. But after receiving the government’s proposals from Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh on Thursday, Layton said he found them disappointing. He and his advisers weighed their options through the weekend and held a conference call yesterday with the 17 caucus members to plan their next step. Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper kept the pressure on Layton to bring down the minority government at the first opportunity.

“ The Liberal party is corrupt, should not be in office, and the people of Canada should judge its record,” Harper said on yesterday’s broadcast of CTV’s Question Period. “ The problem has been Mr. Layton sustains them in office and continues to play these negotiation games day after day and week after week. I think if Mr. Layton were to make it clear he wants to bring down the government and bring forward a confidence motion so the rest of us aren’t hung out to dry, then I suspect we would have an election.” None of this manoeuvring was lost on Prime Minister Paul Martin, who was at the Summit of the Americas in Argentina. When asked, during a press conference, whether he thinks Layton is bluffing, Martin said, “ I really don’t know. The fact is I think we’ll just simply have to see how the discussions between our respective parties go, and everybody will then have to make their minds up.”

Martin has promised to call an election within 30 days of Justice John Gomery’s second report into the sponsorship scandal, which should come in early February. That will likely mean an April election.

There are a number of circumstances that affect the opposition’s ability to defeat the Liberals over the next month.

If the NDP ( 18 seats) lends support to the Tories ( 98) and Bloc Québécois ( 54) in a vote of nonconfidence, the three parties will soundly defeat the Liberals ( 133) in the 308- seat Commons and provoke an election. But if the NDP continues to prop up the Liberals, things are more uncertain. As of Wednesday, when Bloc MP Stéphane Bergeron expects to resign, the Tories and Bloc will need two of the four independent MPs to join them in a non- confidence vote.

That would mean the survival of the Liberals may be in the hands of one MP: Manitoba’s Bev Desjarlais ( Churchill). Former Liberals, Carolyn Parrish ( Mississauga- Erindale) and Pat O’Brien: ( London- Fanshawe) said in recent interviews with the Star they plan to vote with the government, and David Kilgour ( Edmonton- Mill Woods-Beaumont) is expected to vote to bring down the Liberals. Desjarlais is undecided.