Winter vote risky venture for all parties

In their haste to outflank the ruling Liberals, the opposition parties succeed only in tying themselves up in knots

The first purpose of NDP leader Jack Layton’s bid to force a February election is to extricate himself from a logjam of his own making. Having decreed on Monday that the minority Parliament had outlived its purpose, Layton belatedly discovered that some of his own constituencies vocally disagreed with his assessment. With an aboriginal summit, an international conference on the environment, heating subsidies for low- income Canadians, not to mention spending estimates destined to fund some of Layton’s pet budget items in the balance, the NDP was poised to shoot itself in the foot in so many ways that it would have been toeless by the time the campaign got underway.

Luckily for Layton, who describes himself as being in the driver’s seat of the minority government these days, he is only is at the wheel of a bumper car confined to the playground of Parliament Hill. The most obvious effect of the NDP’s latest scheme would be to remove the ill-advised threat of a government defeat on a non- confidence vote between now and the Christmas break. But Layton would not have had a chance to get himself off his own hook if the other opposition parties did not share his belief that they, too, will be better served by a campaign held just as soon as the holidays are out of the way.

Until further notice, the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois seem just as ready as the NDP to spend the next few weeks boxing the Liberals into a winter campaign. But would having the election six weeks earlier than planned really make a difference to the outcome of the vote? Over the past 18 months, the polls have been remarkably constant on two fundamental scores: the enduring Liberal weakness in Quebec and the no less enduring inability of the Conservatives and the NDP to build significantly on their support from the last election.

There is no evidence that the dominant trends in the political environment will change overnight or in time for a campaign in January. On that basis, a normal opposition would want more time, not less, to shift the political dynamics decisively in its favour.

Except that this opposition is ultimately more driven by the fear of Liberal gains than by the prospect of scoring points for itself.

For all its talk of its abhorrence of a right- wing government, the NDP, for instance, would rather have the Conservatives in power with a minority than become irrelevant in the face of a majority Liberal government. But if, as the opposition argues, the Liberals are liable to buy favours with a spring pre- election budget, they can accomplish as much with Monday’s economic statement. And if the other parties don’t expect the publication of the final Gomery report on Feb. 1 to impact negatively on the Liberals in a subsequent election, then its advent in the middle of a campaign will also do no harm to the government. Does that mean Martin should embrace the opposition’s calls for an earlier election? Not necessarily. The other leaders may be ready to force the Prime Minister’s hand and make him renege on his commitment not to pre- empt the final Gomery report with an election call, but there is no evidence that most voters are. As the most recent poll shows, an overwhelming majority still prefer to stick to Martin’s original schedule.

But, by the same token, there is also no valid reason for the Liberals to deploy their heavy artillery to stop the opposition from eventually having its way in the Commons.

If the other parties want to end the year tangling up the minority Parliament in procedural strings, if the Conservatives and the New Democrats want to start the new year by voting nonconfidence in their spring election prospects, there is no serious reason for the Liberals to stand in their way. Chantal Hébert’s national affairs column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. chebert@thestar.ca.