Plenty of tickets left for playoffs
THE LINEBACKER: WEEK 10 PICKS Parity is producing a raft of unlikely post-season contenders, including a certain team playing just across the border
Six- word letter meaning hope, football- style? How about p- a- r- i- t- y. Here it is the final weekend on which any teams receive a bye. Starting with Week 11, there will be a full slate of 16 games, as all 32 teams jockey for one of the 12 available playoff positions. As of today, an incredible 25 NFL teams remain within two wins of their division lead or of a wildcard spot. Isn’t parity wonderful? Of all the NFL team statistical categories, the most telling, if one is looking for a key to a winning record, seems to be “ turnover ratio.” Thus far in ’ 05, the top 10 NFL teams in turnover ratio are a combined 35 games over .500. The second best statistical indicator for the top 10 teams has been rushing attack. The top 10 rushing teams are 31 games above break- even, followed by rushing defence at 21 games over .500, then passing offence at plus- seven. The least meaningful team stat for a winning record has been pass defence. The top 10 teams in that category have combined to go a paltry one game under .500. Teams struggling to stay in the playoff race include the Bills and Chiefs, one of the better matchups this week. Kansas City ( 5- 3) boldly put its season on the line last week as coach Dick Vermiel went for the winning TD with RB Larry Johnson on the last play of the game rather than kick a 19- yard FG and head to overtime. That emotional win over the Raiders should carry over to this week as the Chiefs visit Buffalo ( 3- 5), who are coming off their bye. Somehow the Bills are still in the hunt, trailing the Patriots by a game in the under- performing AFC East. The Bills need RB Willis McGahee to establish an early ground attack to open it up for QB Kelly Holcomb, yet to establish any sort of vertical air attack. RB Priest Holmes is collared and out for the year with head and shoulder problems ( no, not dandruff). The Chiefs have lost four straight visits to Buffalo since 1986. LINE: Bills by 21⁄
2 PICK: CHIEFS SAN FRANCISCO ( 2- 6) at CHICAGO ( 5- 3)
Rookie QB Kyle Orton seems to improve every week, leading the Bears to a two- game lead in the NFC North. The banged- up 49ers will once again go with fourth- string QB Cody Pickett, who did not embarrass himself vs. the Giants last week, but who has yet to show he can win a game. Incredibly, the Bears have not been favoured by more than atouchdown since Week 7 of the ’ 95 season, vs. Jacksonville. They didn’t cover. The Niners have lost their three road games by an average of 31 points. Rookie RB Cedric Benson has made great strides to becoming an effective second option to the injuryprone RB Thomas Jones, who is currently hampered by sore ribs. LINE: Bears by 13 PICK: 49ERS ARIZONA ( 2- 6) at DETROIT ( 3- 5) Both teams have been saddled with QB issues. The Cards will go with Kurt Warner for the second straight week, replacing Josh McCown. The Lions brought QB Jeff Garcia back from the injured list with much fanfare, but after two starting weeks his leg problems flared up last week and he was replaced by Joey Harrington. The Cards were trendy pre-season picks but will never arrive unless RB A. J. Arrington can emerge. WR Anquan Boldin is expected to miss at least another week, leaving WR Larry Fitzgerald to carry the load on his own. The Lions’ receiving depth has disappeared and injuries to starters have beset their defence. The Cards have been pummelled in all three road games. They lost 42- 24 in their last visit to Motown on opening day of ’ 03. LINE: Lions by 4 PICK: LIONS HOUSTON ( 1- 7) at INDIANAPOLIS ( 8- 0) The only question here is if the Colts feel sufficiently motivated to cover the huge spread after an emotional Monday night game vs. the Patriots. Three weeks ago, the Colts galloped into Houston and after trailing early and being tied at halftime, stormed back to win 38- 20. This is a classic sandwich game for the Colts, between the Pats last week and the Bengals next. Texans QB David Carr has been sacked 43 times to QB Peyton Manning’s five. RB Domanick Davis needs to be effective on first down to keep Carr out of third- and- long situations. The key for the Texans to cover this spread is to be able to score fourth quarter points against an uninterested Colts defence resting some starters. LINE: Colts by 18 PICK: TEXANS BALTIMORE ( 2- 6) at JACKSONVILLE ( 5- 3) The Jags have not scored 30 or more points in 58 straight games, dating back to a 33- 3 victory over the Vikes in Week 15 of 2001. The Jags’ tough defence has not allowed more than 21 points this season. The Ravens have QB Kyle Boller back, recovered from a sore toe. LB Ray Lewis is out again, but DB Ed Reed should be ready to go. The Jags intend to bottle up RB Jamal Lewis and force Boller to throw the ball. QB Byron Leftwich never puts up flashy numbers, but is efficient with 11 TDs and just five INTs. He may have to make do without RB Fred Taylor, who sprained his ankle and missed practice. If out, he will be replaced by RB Greg Jones. LINE: Jaguars by 7 PICK: JAGUARS NEW ENGLAND ( 4- 4) at MIAMI ( 3- 5) The Patriots are on a win- loss sequence since opening day. This is a win- week, so the only question is “by how much?” Coach Bill Belichick knew he was a beaten man last Monday, gambling with an onside kick in the third quarter and going for it on fourth down just inside Colts territory. He’s a realist and therefore he knows that this year’s team will need to scratch and claw to make the playoffs, which means winning all its division games. This is a good matchup for the Pats, because QB Gus Frerotte is not capable of taking advantage of their shaky secondary, while the stop troops can handle the running of RB Ronnie Brown and RB Ricky Williams. QB Tom Brady leads the league’s No. 2 pass offence. LINE: Patriots by 3 PICK: PATRIOTS MINNESOTA ( 3- 4) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS ( 6- 2) The ultimate party ( not parity) team, the Vikings have been trashed on the road all four times. Look out. QB Brad Johnson has his sea legs under him, replacing injured QB Daunte Culpepper, leading the Vikes to a home win over the Lions in his first start. QB Eli Manning is already a legend despite a lukewarm 84.3 QB rating. Peyton’s younger brother has led several fourth-quarter drives for W’s that stand out when playing in the U. S.’ s major media market. WR Plaxico Burress and TE Jeremy Shockey may be too much for the Vikes secondary, missing DB Fred ( Capt. Stubing) Smoot, out for the year. The Giants have won three in a row in the series. But the Vikes have a chance if Johnson can get WRs Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson running free vs. a weak Giants secondary. That spread looks a little too wide. LINE: Giants by 91⁄
2 PICK: VIKINGS WASHINGTON ( 5- 3) at TAMPA BAY ( 5- 3) The Redskins come off a win over T. O.- less Eagles, looking to keep pace in the ultra- competitive NFC East. The Skins continue to play tight defence while QB Mark Brunnell’s comebackplayercredentials are embellished each week. Tampa Bay has lost three of the last four and looks more like lame ducks than raging Bucs on offence, with Chris Simms in emergency QB role. Tampa’s defence still ranks No. 1 overall, though. Redskins have covered seven of the last nine meetings between these teams and Bucs are 1- 5 against the spread their last six games this season. LINE: Redskins by 11⁄
2 PICK: REDSKINS NEW YORK JETS ( 2- 6) at CAROLINA ( 6- 2) Burning question: Can the Panthers win without two of their regular TopCats cheerleaders on the sidelines? They’ve had other obstacles to overcome, including a 1- 2 start. They’ve come back with five straight wins, led by one of the league’s most feared pass- catch combos in Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith, backed up by the running of Stephen Davis. The Jets put up a spirited, but losing, effort vs. San Diego last week and will likely go with Brooks Bollinger at QB over Vinny Testaverde. WR Wayne Chrebet sustained another concussion vs. Chargers and brings the total of Jets on injury reserve to nine. LINE: Panthers by 9 PICK: PANTHERS DENVER ( 6- 2) at OAKLAND ( 3- 5)
Raiders are putting up decent points considering Randy Moss has been beat up for weeks now. Once- erratic Jake Plummer has thrown only three INTs for Denver and is supplying surprising leadership. His QB rating is a fine 91.3 ( Oakland’s Kerry Collins is not bad at 86.5). Oakland’s young D must find a way to stop the Broncos’ rushing tandem of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. Denver has covered five of its last six games. LINE: Broncos by 3 PICK: RAIDERS GREEN BAY ( 1- 7) at ATLANTA ( 6- 2)
Yes, the Packers are awful, but their seven losses have been by an average of fewer than six points and four of them have been by three or fewer. Things don’t get any easier vs. a Falcons team that boasts the NFL’s best rushing attack, one that averages nearly 185 yards per game. The Packers, No. 30 themselves rushing, rate No. 13 vs. the run. Packers QB Brett Favre is 10- 5 his last 15 when cast in the underdog role. LINE: Falcons by 91⁄ PICK: PACKERS ST. LOUIS ( 4- 4) at SEATTLE ( 6- 2) Rams have shown surprising resilience in the absence of head coach Mike Martz and starting QB Marc Bulger. It would be a bonus should Bulger be ready to go this week vs. Seahawks, as expected, taking over from fill- in Jamie Martin. WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce should be ready, too, coming off the bye week. Seahawks won earlier meeting this season 37- 31 and have won four games in a row, boasting NFL’s No. 1 overall offence. QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander are having Pro Bowl years. LINE: Seahawks by 7 PICK: RAMS CLEVELAND ( 3- 5) at PITTSBURGH ( 6- 2)
Charlie Batch gets another start at QB for the Steelers, as Ben Roethlisberger continues to rehab his knee. Batch wasn’t great vs. Packers last week, but Pittsburgh won on the strength of its defence anyway. In Cleveland, meanwhile, QB Trent Dilfer’s stock continues to plummet, with Charlie Frye in the wings. Pittsburgh allows only 15.5 points per game ( No. 5 in league), while Cleveland allows 17.0 ( No. 6). Steelers have not covered in their last three home games. LINE: Steelers by 8 PICK: BROWNS DALLAS ( 5- 3) at PHILADELPHIA ( 4- 4) Look who’s in the basement of the NFC East? Eagles have owned the division for several years but that was before the Terrell Owens soap opera took over. No, he’s not the only reason they find themselves in a must- win position, but as distractions go they don’t get much bigger. Eagles rank No. 1 in passing offence, but No. 32 in rushing. Eagles have only one cover in their last nine games. LINE: Eagles by 3 PICK: COWBOYS