Why West won’t back peaceful revolt
ANALYSIS Caspian oil reserves and U.S. military ally’s strategic location weaken opposition parties’ chances
ucked away in a remote corner of the
world, Azerbaijan
hardly seems a place of global strategic importance. But a stroll through the capital’s streets offers evidence of this tiny country’s past and possible future at the crossroads of history. From the ancient alleyways and stone walls of Baku’s old quarter — evidence of centuries of Arab, Persian and Turkish influence — it’s a short walk to the stylish, 19th- century mansions that recall the country’s first oil boom, when European investors like the Nobel brothers transformed Azerbaijan into the world’s leading petroleum producer.
Nearby, Soviet-era concrete eyesores stand rotting amid shining new office blocks built by Western oil companies that have invested billions of dollars in tapping the oil reserves of the Caspian Sea since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
“ Azerbaijan is a small country, but its importance far outweighs its size,” notes Fariz Ismailzade, a researcher in Baku for Johns Hopkins University.
“Azerbaijan is not only the gateway to the oil reserves of the Caspian, it is also of vital strategic importance as a crossroads of Asia, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.”
So, the stakes are high as a simmering political crisis plays out in this mainly Muslim country of 8 million.
Stung by its failure to win more than a handful of seats in last Sunday’s parliamentary elections and emboldened by Western accusations of vote fraud, Azerbaijan’s opposition is vowing to overturn the elections in a peaceful uprising modelled on last year’s Orange revolution in Ukraine and the 2003 Rose revolt in Georgia. So far, it hasn’t seemed up to the task.
Its first post-election rally, held on Wednesday, drew only 15,000 demonstrators, far fewer than the 50,000 anticipated by reformers, but opposition strategists believe they can still build momentum for a democratic revolution with a series of street rallies in the coming days and weeks, including a protest planned for today.
“ We need to be more careful than in Georgia and Ukraine because, unlike in those countries, the government of Azerbaijan is willing to use force against its people,” says Murad Gassanly of the Azadliq (Freedom) bloc. “ We don’t want to see our supporters
Tbeaten and lying in the hospital.” “ We already had more people at our first protest than they did in Ukraine or Georgia, and that number is going to grow.” But Azerbaijan’s strategic importance could turn out to be the opposition’s undoing. The government of President Ilham Aliyev, whose Yeni ( New) Azerbaijan party won an overwhelming majority in last Sunday’s election, has not only supported Western oil interests but also positioned Azerbaijan as a key U. S. military ally. That has translated into far less American support for the opposition here than that given in Ukraine. When demonstrators took to the streets of Ukraine to protest fraudulent elections, Western diplomats issued two “ red lines” to then- president Leonid Kuchma: that the government was not to use violence and that it would not take any step to certify the election. The United States and Europe threatened to seize top officials’ assets abroad and bar them from the West if the “ red lines” were crossed. But in Azerbaijan, opposition sources say, Western diplomats are pressuring the opposition to compromise.
“ We’ve been asked how many seats we want, but they’re missing the point,” says a reliable source who asked not to be named. “ It’s not about the number of seats, it’s about the fact that an entire election was stolen.”
Observers point to two major disincentives — one oil- driven, the other military — to Western support for regime change here. The first disincentive is Azerbaijan’s increasing importance in the global energy market. By 2008, up to 1 million barrels of oil a day will be exported to the West through a pipeline connecting Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. One analyst predicts that the country’s name soon will be as familiar to Western oil consumers as that of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.
Less known, but as essential, is the growing role Azerbaijan is playing as a U. S. military ally.
U. S. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld has made three trips to Azerbaijan in the past 18 months and has praised the country as a key ally in the war on terror. Azerbaijan is one of the few Muslim countries to send troops to Iraq, with 160 there and an equal number in Afghanistan.
Analysts say the Pentagon is now keen to operate a small base in Azerbaijan, especially since the closing of its base in Uzbekistan earlier this year. Work has already begun on two powerful radar stations in Azerbaijan, one just north of the border with Iran, the other near Russia.
There has even been talk of positioning Azerbaijan as a potential springboard for attacking Iran, using the Azerbaijanis living in Iran — there are more than 20 million of them — as a proxy force, similar to the Northern Alliance fighters in Afghanistan.
Notes Ismailzade: “ With Azerbaijan, the United States has a military ally perfectly positioned between Russia and Iran, between its old Cold War rival and a potential new front in the war on terror.”
Aliyev’s government has frequently warned that a revolution would jeopardize both oil and military interests.
“ This government has proven that it is a strong, reliable partner of the international community, and particularly the United States,” says Elin Suleymanov, a senior aide to Aliyev. “The opposition is a diverse, rag- tag group of politicians who don’t have the support of the people. They are unpredictable and radical.”
Aliyev, who has never made an official visit to Washington and reportedly craves an invitation, has also shown that he is willing to make some concessions.
Following widespread Western criticism of the election, officials announced they would cancel the results in two of Azerbaijan’s 125 constituencies and perform a recount in a third. Two regional governors were fired and four other officials arrested for allegedly interfering in the election process.
Analysts say recounts could be ordered in as many as 20 constituencies in an attempt to appease the opposition, but Gassanly says he won’t be “ bought off with crumbs. . . . We’re fighting for a new election.” The opposition is also warning that Western failure to support democracy in Azerbaijan will hurt its interests in the long run. Though traditionally a moderate Islamic country, recent years have seen a rapid growth in traditional religious observance in Azerbaijan, especially outside Baku. The government has accused Iran, which like Azerbaijan is made up predominantly of Shiite Muslims, of promoting its radical brand of Islam by funding mosques, establishing Islamic schools and sending religious teachers to Azerbaijan.
“ If the West does not support democracy in Azerbaijan, our people will look elsewhere for a way to fight this corrupt regime,” says opposition leader Ali Kerimli, head of the Popular Front party.
“ They will look to Iran, they will look to Islamic radicalism, and then it will be too late.”