A by-election to keep an eye on

Given the media frenzy over the looming federal election, it has been easy to ignore the provincial by- election that is being held this week. But it certainly warrants a look. Voters in the northeast Toronto riding of ScarboroughRouge River go to the polls Thursday to fill the seat vacated by long- time Liberal MPP Alvin Curling, the former speaker of the Legislature who took a diplomatic appointment. The outcome may seem pre- ordained. ScarboroughRouge River, a multiethnic riding in which three- quarters of the residents are visible minorities ( the highest proportion in the province), is considered a safe Liberal seat. Curling won a whopping 64 per cent of the vote in 2003. But the by- election campaign has been an interesting contest that may foreshadow some of what we will see in the general election in 2006.

Bas Balkissoon, 53, a city councillor from the area for the past 17 years, is the Liberal candidate. He is running heavily on his own accomplishments and experience rather than on the government’s record.

At an all- candidates’ meeting last week, he did not once refer to Premier Dalton McGuinty during more than two hours of debate. Nor does his campaign literature mention the premier.

“ This is a by- election,” he explains in an interview. “ This is about electing a local representative.” But his two main opponents — New Democrat Sheila White and Conservative Cynthia Lai — see it differently. They are both stressing broken Liberal promises and encouraging voters to “ send a message to McGuinty” by electing them. Of the two, White, 51, an aide to NDP leader Howard Hampton, is the more impressive. This is her fourth run for public office and the experience shows both at the doorstep and in the allcandidates’ encounters. While she has strong local roots, her Queen’s Park job also gives her a good grasp of provincial issues. The Hong Kong- born Lai, also 51 and past president of the Toronto Real Estate Board, is a political novice. Her greenness showed last week at an all- candidates’ meeting, where she appeared to challenge Conservative orthodoxy by, among other things, calling for the repeal of the Safe Schools Act ( passed by the previous Conservative government) and the restoration of funding for affordable housing ( eliminated by the previous Conservative government). Of course, under new Conservative leader John Tory, this may be the new party orthodoxy.

Lai ought not to be dismissed, however. First of all, she starts from a much stronger base than does White, as the Conservatives got 25 per cent of the vote in the riding in 2003 compared with a minuscule 6 per cent for the NDP. She also has the active support of Raymond Cho, who represents the other half of the riding on city council and was finessed out of the Liberal nomination by the party hierarchy, which favoured Balkissoon. She could benefit as well from the damage done to the Liberal brand by the report of the Gomery inquiry in Ottawa.

However, when I asked the three candidates whether some voters might cast ballots against the provincial Liberals in the by- election to send a message to Paul Martin, they all said No. But Lai added, interestingly, that she has had to explain at some doorsteps that her leader is NOT Stephen Harper.

Is the race close? Probably not, but the Liberals are clearly not taking it for granted. They have parachuted in a top political operator, Christine Bome, to run the campaign, and there has been a parade of cabinet ministers into the riding to help out, including Health Minister George Smitherman to announce the establishment of a new community health centre. With the riding’s Liberal tradition and Balkissoon’s high local profile, that should be enough. But strange things sometimes happen in byelections. Ian Urquhart’s provincial affairs column appears Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. iurquha@thestar.ca.