Why this election really matters
THE BIG PICTURE
OTTAWA— This election isn’t just about this election; it’s also about the last and the next. That makes the first winter campaign in 25 years — cold, unwanted and dirty as it already is — unusually important. Along with passing judgment on 17 months of minority rule, it prepares the ground for yet another day of decision with at least one new party leader and issues that will mushroom between now and then — national unity, international competitiveness and democratic reform.
True, this election’s significance is ingeniously disguised. Not much has changed since Canadians in discouraging low numbers straggled to the polls in June 2004 — not the issues, leaders, public opinion polls and, most obviously, not the schoolyard pleasure of slinging mud.
Last time voters whose first choice was none-of-the-above
vacillated until the final weekend before giving Paul Martin the priceless political gift of a second chance. This time those not disenfranchised by weather, wintering down south or just too ticked- off to bother casting a ballot are trapped in the loo — the least objectionable option election. Blame that on missed opportunities. In a circle and a half through the seasons, Liberal and Conservative leaders have utterly failed to change public perceptions.
Martin remains a frustrating enigma. Bono, once the Prime Minister’s pet rock star, captures a country’s broad bafflement in a narrow criticism of aid commitments left unfulfilled; “ I’m mystified by the man, actually, at this point, because I like him very much personally and I just think it’s a huge opportunity that he’s missing out on.”
Instead of delivering bold change, Martin’s unsteady hand on the tiller, the laissez- faire defence of public health care and a strong federal government along with the politics- as- usual cronyism of Liberal insiders leave the Prime Minister with a singular asset: In an age of personality politics, he’s more likeable than Stephen Harper. Not being Harper gives Martin an immediate advantage. It focuses Liberal strategy on all those undecided voters in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia the Conservative leader makes queasy.
Inexplicably, the wisdom of targeting swing voters escapes an Official Opposition preaching to the converted. Canadians who would rather drink poison than again support a party that stole their money made up their minds long ago and constant reminders won’t make them bear down harder on ballot pencils.
Harper’s challenge is to convince the still suspicious that Conservatives pose no neo- con threat and, even without seats in a Quebec the Bloc is set to dominate, are ready to govern. Had Harper completed Job One for all opposition leaders, Liberals would be poised for the same long fall Tories took in 1993, not eyeing an extraordinary fifth consecutive victory. To become prime minister, Harper must build confidence that there’s no danger in disciplining Liberals by voting Conservative. He does that by never saying “ majority,” by stressing that three parties on his political left would constrain a Tory minority and, finally, by defining in fine detail an agenda Liberals insist is hidden.
Harper’s task is child’s play compared to what’s ahead for Jack Layton. A leader and party that grew where not much flourished must now avoid the shrinkage the NDP suffers when voters polarize.
If Layton persuades a grumpy electorate that voting NDP is only a vote for the NDP and not effectively a vote for Conservatives, if Canadians believe his party has earned a bigger voice in another minority, then Layton will be this election’s big winner. If that message proves too complex or voters opt for a majority, the NDP risks falling back to recent lows in seats and influence. But when this campaign mercifully ends, the decision will be about more than Martin, Harper or Layton. Inevitably voters will further expose centrifugal forces in Alberta as well as Quebec pulling the country apart. And a turnout as small as expected will signal the urgent need to rebuild a democratic system increasingly dismissed as unrepresentative and irrelevant. Here in the capital, the sour joke is that taxpayers will spend upwards of $265 million on this election merely to rid Liberals or Conservatives of an ineffectual leader. While at least one head will almost certainly topple before the country votes again, the greater challenge for losing parties is to renew themselves by reconnecting ideas, policies and politics. As the last election’s progeny, this campaign will be mostly about winning and losing. But another is coming soon enough to a polling station near you and as surely as this campaign will mush through ice, snow and indifference, the next will be more about the future than the past. To paraphrase the Prime Minister, that makes this early, unloved election very, very important.