25 ridings could be decisive
THE ONTARIO FACTOR Province has 106 of the 308 seats in the Commons There were many close calls in the 2004 election
Voters in about 25 Ontario ridings will almost certainly determine whether Prime Minister Paul Martin loses his job to Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. As home to 106 of 308 federal seats, Ontario is always the key electoral battleground and this campaign will focus on constituencies that could swing, possibly transforming a Liberal minority government into a Tory minority.
In the 2004 federal election, there were 26 Ontario ridings with a margin of victory less than five percentage points. Eleven were won by Liberals, 12 by Conservatives and three by the NDP.
University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman said yesterday “ things are volatile in the campaign,” so predictions are difficult. But Wiseman said the Tories have to avoid the blunders that cost them at least a dozen Ontario seats in the final week of the last campaign, and must be better at countering Liberal attacks on Harper. John Baird, who is stepping down as a Progressive Conservative MPP for Nepean-Carleton to run as a Conservative in Ottawa WestNepean, said the party is now “ more disciplined and more focused.”
“ This election is about Ontario. Ontario has the power to bring change to government. There’s 25 Liberal seats that are quite vulnerable,” said Baird, co- chair of the 2004 federal campaign in Ontario.
Baird said that ridings like Burlington, Halton, London-Fanshawe and Sarnia- Lambton could determine the national outcome. He said it would be foolish for the Liberals to try to demonize Harper a second time. “ In the last election, fear trumped anger and the Liberals are making a big mistake if they try to play the last campaign a second time.” Mike Crawley, Ontario president of the Liberal Party of Canada, said the Tories are already slinging mud with accusations against the government over the sponsorship scandal.
“ We’ve got to ensure that we stick to the higher ground and talk about what we’re going to do and what we can do for voters, as opposed to getting caught up into the negative campaign that the Conservatives seem to want to take it,” he said.
Mindful of Ontarians’ misgivings about Harper, Crawley said the Liberals want to force the Tory leader to discuss what his government would do after taking office.
“ There’s nothing wrong with talking to voters about what Stephen Harper stands for. I don’t see it as negative campaigning . . . if he once again attempts to talk about everything but what he would do if he were prime minister,” he said.
Marilyn Churley, NDP national co- chair in 2004 and now the party’s candidate in BeachesEast York, said she’s not surprised the Liberals want to make the contest in Ontario a referendum on Harper.
In the last election, Liberal ads stoked fears of a supposed Harper hidden agenda that drove left-leaning “strategic voters” away from the New Democrats. They worried that a vote for the NDP would, in effect, be a vote for Harper so they cast Liberal ballots instead. But Churley said a reprise of that is unlikely in what she predicted would be “ an ugly campaign.”
“ It is not possible for the Conservatives to win a majority. It is just not possible because of Quebec. People shouldn’t be scared,” she said, referring to the Tories’ dismal prospects in that province. “Even in the worst- case scenario, if the Conservatives won a minority, you’d still have a lot of NDPers and Liberals and Bloc there. They would not be able to run amok the way the Liberals will try to portray them as doing.” New Democrats are also optimistic because Jack Layton proved himself as a responsible leader by making the minority Parliament work, she said.
“ He’s got big coattails this time that he didn’t have last time. He was untested and just learning and now he’s been tested and people like what they see.”