A race that’s too close to call
DURHAM REGION Oshawa contest tightest one in ’ 04 Candidates same this time around
John Devitt, whose new north Oshawa home is astride the legendary Windfields Farm, which gave us champion thoroughbreds like Kentucky Derby winner Northern Dancer, is a fan of sleek stallions and racehorses.
He’s also knows a little about horse races — of a different sort. The riding of Oshawa in Durham Region had the closest three- way race in the country in the last federal election, with the Conservative candidate, Colin Carrie, winning by a nose. It’s set to be one of the mostwatched campaigns in the GTA because with the candidates the same as in 2004, it’s anybody’s guess who will win.
“ It could be even more difficult to predict than last time,” Devitt said. “There’s a strong union presence who favour the NDP, plus a large Conservative base, but a lot of people are moving in from Toronto, and that could help the Liberals.” In 2004, Carrie edged out high- profile NDP candidate Sid Ryan, the outspoken Ontario president of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, by just 463 votes, or less than 1 percentage point. He was fewer than 3 points ahead of the Liberal, Oshawa city councillor Louise Parkes.
“ I’m not taking anything for granted,” says Carrie. “ But last time, you had two high- profile candidates, and they still didn’t beat me.”
All three have to tread carefully, for Oshawa — Canada’s auto industry capital — is a freshly wounded city. Just this month, General Motors announced 3,660 job cuts by 2008 mainly in its Oshawa assembly plants.
“ It’s a big issue,” said Devitt, 63, a retired GM inventory control clerk. “ If GM goes bankrupt, I don’t know how secure our pension or benefits are.”
In such a tightly wound environment as this, every vote is critical. And the key will be to not get pulled under by tactics of the enemy. Oshawa became a test case for strategic voting in 2004. Some called it the “ Oshawa effect,” referring to NDP voters who abandoned Ryan for Parkes in the election’s dying days out of fear — stoked by the Liberals — of electing a Conservative. But that’s what happened anyway. So Ryan said this time around, the NDP is making the riding a top priority. Leader Jack Layton will visit early in the campaign. “ The party is very serious about winning here,” says Ryan of Oshawa, a seat held by legendary NDP leader Ed Broadbent from 1968 to 1989. Oshawa is the NDP’s best chance in Durham Region. The same cannot be said of elsewhere in the region, even in the next door riding of Whitby- Oshawa, held by Liberal Judi Longfield. It will likely be a fight to the finish with the entry of star Conservative candidate Jim Flaherty, the former provincial finance minister under premier Mike Harris. The NDP candidate is elementary school principal Maret Sadem- Thompson.
Just north, in the riding of Durham, Conservative incumbent — Bev Oda only squeaked by her Liberal opponent in the last election. This time she faces Liberal Douglas Moffatt. Mark Holland, in Ajax- Pickering, won by a wide margin in the last election and this time will face Conservative Rondo Thomas and the NDP’s Kevin Modeste. But the race to watch is in Oshawa. Both Ryan and Carrie believe a new auto strategy is needed to ensure the stability of the industry. Carrie, chair of the Conservative auto caucus, said it’s untrue his party is against subsidies for the auto industry. “ For those industries like auto and aerospace where this happens on an international level, we’ll be at the table.”
Parkes pointed out if it weren’t for Liberal commitments to the auto industry, including the Beacon Project, a multi- billion dollar GM research and manufacturing venture, the GM job cuts could have been worse. The candidates also highlighted Oshawa’s stagnating waterfront and closed marina as a big issue. While Ryan and Carrie say the Liberals have sidelined its importance, Parkes said she wants to work in government “ so it becomes a jewel in the Oshawa crown.” The campaign cheap shots have already begun: Parkes said the fact that Ryan lives in Whitby and Carrie in Ottawa are strikes against them; Carrie says union leader Ryan caters to special interest groups; and of the incumbent’s parliamentary record, Ryan replies, “Record? What record?”
Devittis supporting the Conservatives. “ Anyone but the Liberals, really. They bribe you every year with money that’s ours, and of course, the scandals enter into it.” But this is a horse race, and, each candidate is trying to nose the other out. Ryan will do his best to make sure NDP votes stay with the NDP.
Parkes will have to convince the constituents that Liberal corruption illuminated by the Gomery commission should not keep people from voting for her. And Carrie’s job will be to erase lingering fears of a Stephen Harper government.
“ I’m not a scary conservative,” Carrie says. “ I’m a regular guy who wants to do good for my community.”
Wait for the photo finish.