PM’s pitch a tough sell on the Rock
PST. JOHN’S, NFLD. olitics and money always walk hand in hand. Here on the Rock, they are inseparable. If Paul Martin didn’t know that before an ugly dispute with Conservative Premier Danny Williams over offshore oil revenues, he knows it now.
It cost the rest of Canada $ 2.6 billion to settle that nastiness and, on the Prime Minister’s first campaign visit here, it’s far from certain Liberals will get your money’s worth. More is at stake than the seven Newfoundland seats — five Liberals, two Tory — Martin tried to buy in a panic call to Williams back when the 2004 election hung in the balance. From that hasty phone chat comes not only this campaign’s hey- big- spender theme, but also this government’s poker- table character.
In making what Williams took as an iron- clad promise to let Newfoundland keep 100 per cent of Atlantic oilfields revenues, Martin set a pattern: Politics- on- the- fly trumps careful policy and Ottawa’s relations with the provinces would be dominated by a series of one- off deals.
It’s a pattern with two price tags. A pre- election spree could cost $20 billion. And Martin’s preference for piecemeal federalism is fundamentally changing the country without debate. Whether or not it’s working politically is another matter. There’s precious little evidence in opinion polls that all those pre- election promises are doing more than deepening voter cynicism; here, Liberals are wondering just what a couple of billion bought.
Instead of making gains, the ruling party could lose the Avalon riding to anger over retiring cabinet minister John Efford’s easygoing work habits and a long list of local concerns. Party nervousness was evident yesterday when Martin chose not to take listener questions on a call- in radio show known here as the Voice of the Common Man. Even more worrying for Liberals, Martin’s talk about Ottawa’s role pushing the economy from historic bust to current boom is heard by an audience that largely sees things differently. What many Canadians consider a sweetheart arrangement that lets Newfoundland scoop resource revenues without losing its have-not equalization payments is dismissed here as a reluctant Ottawa giving the province its fair share. Memory banks have less room for the up- front $2 billion resource cheque Ottawa cut earlier this year than the all- party effort it took to extract it. Worse still for a Liberal government trying to leave minority rule behind, is the lingering suspicion Newfoundland would not have secured its deal if Martin had won a majority.
It’s a harsh judgment that unfairly minimizes the federal interest in seeing Newfoundland permanently escape an economy where goingdownthe- road is often the best opportunity. But it’s also the inescapable legacy of the way Martin’s Liberals do the nation’s business. As soothing as throwing money at problems can be, it carries no guarantees of long- term satisfaction. Far from praising Martin, this province wants to know what another Liberal government would do to raise the federal presence here, particularly by buying into the massive lower Churchill River power project, restoring forecasting services and protecting fish stocks from foreign plundering.
That legacy is even more poisonous elsewhere.
Redefining federalism one deal at a time has big Ontario and small Saskatchewan fuming over Confederation’s costs and benefits while mandarins, academics, and others wonder why Martin isn’t displaying his blueprint for federalism’s future.
Certainly he’s had time. Way back in the mid’ 90s, the then- finance minister was laying the fiscal foundations for changes often more profound than those furiously argued at rancorous constitutional conferences.
In the Canada Martin is creating, a strikingly less avuncular Ottawa is edging away from the anonymous funding of overarching national programs and toward more obvious and politically advantageous spending on things voters see and touch. Investing directly in provincial jurisdictions from cities to day- care makes sense for Liberals and may ultimately provide a more flexible, sustainable federal model. But in this low- key Liberal campaign, Martin isn’t talking about that any more when he is facing undecided, potentially angry voters. What he’s talking about is a strong economy that lets Liberals blend politics and policy with money.
If that isn’t working here, will it work anywhere? James Travers’s national affairs column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. jtraver@thestar.ca.