Quebecers, women top faces for new year
MONTREAL— The least known factor on the 2012 political watch list is also the one with the most potential to alter the Canadian landscape.
For more than a year, Quebec’s François Legault has been in the lead in the province’s voting intentions. To bring a nascent party to power in one election is virtually unheard of in Canada. A CoalitionAvenir-québec (CAQ) victory in a vote expected this year could cost the sovereignty movement its longstanding central place in the Quebec mainstream.
Jean Charest is the dean of the premiers and, along with Stéphane Dion, the (still active) Quebec politician best known in the rest of Canada. He has long stood out from the rest of the Quebec political class for his knowledge of and his genuine interest in Canadian dynamics. Should he beat the long odds that attend his re-election prospects, expect his name to resurface in federal leadership speculation.
Thomas Mulcair was one of the main architects of the 2011 NDP surge in Quebec. The New Year finds him running for the leadership as the anti-establishment candidate, a status burnished by rival Brian Topp’s recent critique of his past credentials as a Charest minister. (From an NDP perspective, there must be worse sins than to have been associated with a Liberal government that has expanded universal child care; set up a generous parental leave regime; consistently pushed the climate change file and offered the most comprehensive provincial critique of the federal Conservative tough- on-crime agenda.) It will be interesting to see if Mulcair remains a happy camper through the travails of the coming year.
Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae has been enjoying his most successful political season since he led the NDP to power in Ontario in 1990. As things stand now, a leadership campaign that he has not ruled out entering could be his to lose. The coming year will feature either his swan song or a phoenixstyle rise from the ashes of the devastated federal Liberal party.
Ontario Premier Dalton Mcguinty earned the 2011 survivor of the year award for securing a third mandate last fall. The dual challenges of a shifting economic landscape and minority rule will test his skills this year. In spite of his best public efforts, he will also have to continue to fend off calls to run for the federal leadership as antiRae Liberals look for any possible champion to put up against the interim federal leader.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has become as central a figure of the Harper government as Paul Martin was in the days of Jean Chrétien. But so far his budgets have been more politically driven than policy-oriented. The 2012 installment will be the first to be completely crafted in a majority setting. It comes at a time when signature Flaherty initiatives such as a panCanadian harmonized sales tax and a national financial regulator have partly or completely foundered.
As national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, Shawn Atleo has signalled he wants to change the terms of the conversation between the federal government and the aboriginal communities he represents. As it happens, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has similar ambitions. But it is far from obvious they share a common vision. A summit later this month will set the tone for the next four years.
Finally, 2012 will see more women at centre ice than ever. In Alberta, the fate of the province’s Conservative dynasty rests on Premier
Health Minister
NDP leadership candidate
NDP leadership candidate
Coalition Avenir Québec Alison Redford’s shoulders. In British Columbia, rookie Premier Christy Clark is trying to keep a surging NDP at bay. In Quebec, Pauline Marois is tasked with avoiding a PQ shipwreck. Two women — Niki Ashton and Peggy Nash — are running for the NDP leadership and the latter is among the front-runners. And now that Flaherty has made a nonnegotiable funding offer to the provinces for medicare, it will be up to Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq to figure out what if any role the federal government can claim for itself in shaping Canada’s top social program. Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.