What donations reveal in NDP race
If willingness to donate money is any indication, then dark horse Nathan Cullen has emerged as another serious contender in the New Democratic Party leadership race.
Or, to put it another way, there may now be no single candidate who can beat Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair.
Up to now, the perceived frontrunners in the NDP contest to replace Jack Layton have been Mulcair, party backroomer Brian Topp and Toronto MP Peggy Nash.
Ottawa MP Paul Dewar is also named in the media as someone who can win, even though his command of French is fatally flawed.
But other than self-serving polls commissioned by the candidates themselves and judiciously leaked to reporters, there’s been little hard evidence to go on.
Donations are crucial exceptions. By law, candidates must reveal to Elections Canada who donated money to their campaigns and how much each gave.
Such donations don’t necessarily translate into votes. But in a one- person/one-vote race in which both corporate and union fundraising are banned, the ability of candidates to cast a wide net in their search for money does mean something.
And here’s where Cullen, a British Columbia MP who advocates closer cooperation with the Liberals, scores surprisingly well.
In terms of both money raised and number of donors, Mulcair remains the clear front-runner. So far, he’s pulled in more than $205,000 in contributions from a total of 1,347 individuals — including 342 who can remain anonymous because they gave less than $20 each.
But Cullen has surged ahead to secure the No. 2 spot — in number of donors at least. Elections Canada says that up until Feb. 25, 1,123 individuals, including 199 anonymous small donors, contributed to his campaign. The $129,555 he raised pales when compared to other candidates. Topp, Nash, Dewar and Mulcair all raised more. But other than Mulcair, none had Cullen’s fundraising reach. Dewar tapped 782 donors and Nash 727. Even Topp, whose campaign is almost as rich as Mulcair’s, received money from only 984 people (including 460 anonymous donors). Yet while Cullen is doing surprisingly well, the fundraising data also demonstrates Mulcair’s growing strength. Big names like former NDP leader Ed Broadbent remain in Topp’s camp. But a significant number of serious if somewhat lesser known NDP politicos are putting their money behind Mulcair. The Quebec MP already has the political support of at least 40 NDP MPS — more than any other candidate. But he also has attracted money from New Democrats who are well-known locally, ranging from former B.C. MP Ian Waddell to former Ontario Federation of Labour chief Wayne Samuelson. A lawyer himself, Mulcair is also said to be making gains among members of the criminal bar, helped in part by the support of James Lockyer, a high-profile defender of the wrongfully convicted. Some rank-and-file Toronto New Democrat activists who were fierce Layton supporters also show up on the Mulcair donor list. Indeed, this makes sense. Mulcair’s opponents may suggest that the former provincial Liberal cabinet minister, who at one time flirted with joining Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, will move the party to the right. But under Layton, the party already made that move. That’s history. For many New Democrats, the aim now is to choose a leader who can win. Finally, a note of caution. Willingness to donate does not always translate into votes. Former NDP backroom heavyweight Robin Sears gave money to both Nash and Dewar. Sears, now a political consultant, says he may donate to even more candidates.
But he won’t vote for any of them. He can’t. He’s no longer an NDP member. Thomas Walkom’s column appears Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.